The AI trade isn’t just about tech anymore — it’s about all stocks. In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Kim Bolton, President & Portfolio Manager at Black Swan Dexteritas, argues we’re entering the next phase of the AI cycle, where the winners won’t just be the companies building the technology — but the ones using it to drive real earnings. As he puts it, investors need to rethink what a “tech stock” even is.
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I am struggling to get through the last season of Industry. Not because it isn’t brutally compelling, but I’ve been distracted by a new drama – my neighbourhood group chat. Each night I settle in for the no less than 30 messages: community issues, subtle accusations, not-so-subtle accusations. Then there are the side chats. I’m in no less than four. It’s like any good after-show of a reality series: play-by-play commentary, reliving the spiciest moments, and trying to figure out everyone’s motivations.
Here are five things to know:
TACO Tuesday: US President Donald Trump granted a two-week extension to his threat to end civilization and the market reaction is swift: stocks are soaring (2-5%), oil is plunging (-18%) and gold is bouncing (+3%). Ninety minutes before the deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire or face dire consequences, Trump said he will “hold off the destructive force” being sent because they are “very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace with Iran.” This was music to the markets ears, especially the end where he said this is “close to resolution.” Volume is off the charts running double what is normal in Europe. So we live to fight another day, 14 more days at least. Investors are hopeful this paves the way for a longer-term ceasefire and the permanent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Does it all go back to normal? “Iran’s ability to shut the waterway will embed a risk premium in the price of all commodities flowing through it for the foreseeable future,” said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge to Bloomberg. Below is a summary of the market action:
- Stocks rip higher
- Bonds rallying
- Oil plunges 18%, pre-market action for energy companies is ugly. Ovintiv -6%, Cenovus -8%, Suncor -6%, Exxon Mobil -5% as examples.
- Gold up 3%, miners rallying
- Fertilizers down: Nutrien (-4.5%), Mosaic (-3%), CF Industries (-11%)
- Crypto surging: Bitcoin +5%, Ethereum +8%
- Memory stocks are popping: Micron (+9%), Western Digital (+7%), and Sandisk (+9%) on improved helium access.
- Travel stocks surging: airlines and cruiselines all up in the pre-market
Clear skies: Delta Airlines is soaring 13% as their earnings hit on a great day for travel stocks. The results themselves showed better than expected profit but come with a warning about fuel prices and lack of clarity around their full-year profit forecast. Delta Airlines will take a $2 billion hit from higher fuel costs. In light of this, it is not updating its full-year profit forecast. Still, they picked a great day to report because investors are just grateful the war in Iran appears to be winding down. Business and premium travel was a bright spot and has been key to the Delta story, outside of the price of fuel. Premium revenue increased 14% compared to just 1% for the main cabin and corporate travel was up double-digits which is an acceleration from the previous quarter.
90s baby girl: The power of 90s nostalgia is showing up in Levi Strauss this morning with the stock soaring 11% on the back of stronger profit and sales driven by demand for their iconic jeans. The jeans maker also boosted its outlook for the year citing strong demand. CEO Michelle Gass said the current 90s zeitgeist is helping to fuel demand, including shows like Love Story: John F Kennedy & Carolyn Bessette. In fact, sales of Levi’s 517 fit jeans which were Bessette’s favourite, were up 25% in the quarter. “We reiterate Outperform as our bullish thesis remains intact,” wrote Rick Patel of Raymond James, “LEVI has compelling levers to drive at least mid-single-digit top-line growth…while margins have room to expand…This should drive double-digit EPS growth (with upside potential to consensus), robust FCF generation, and total shareholder returns (buybacks, dividends).”
The banana stand: Better Home & Finance is plunging 21% in the pre-market after announcing it would offer 2 million shares for net proceeds of about $60 million. The financing comes after a 40% rally in the stock over the last month, although it is still down nearly 50% from the peak in October. The online mortgage platform has captured the imagination of retail investors and was a top recommendation from Dan Lewis of Orange Capital last summer and gained wider appeal when Eric Jackson of EMJ Capital got to the name in the fall.
Downdraft: Vermilion Energy is getting caught up in the energy sell off this morning despite reporting higher than expected production in the quarter. The company also announced an asset sale which will bring in $24 million and an asset purchase in Germany. RBC is increasing the price target from $15 to $22/share as part of a wider preview into Canadian energy earnings. Many of these companies start reporting in May, and ahead of that Exxon has revealed how much the Iran war disrupted production. Exxon said 6% of its global output was upended by the war. “This is clearly a messy release with a number of XOM-specific factors related to current events in the Middle East impacting earnings,” wrote RBC’s Biraj Borkhataria in a note to clients. Exxon reports on May 1st.
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