A year ago, Bob Thompson called commodities the trade of the decade. Since then, silver miners, energy stocks and commodity-focused funds have delivered massive gains. But with gold down sharply from its highs, oil rolling over and investors questioning whether the trade has become too crowded, is it time to take profits—or is this just a correction within a much bigger bull market?
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A mixed up week with days off and thin earnings, but Nike reports and the USMCA negotiation begins. Read all about it in my weekly column.
Here are five things to know:
The sun also rises: Stocks are soaring this morning after a tumultous weekend in which the US and Iran traded attacks but made nice right before the Sunday futures market opened. Chip stocks are leading the recovery after the “chip wreck” last week in which semis fell more than 7%. The Magnificent 7 is officially in correction territory. Investors are simultaneously fed up with spending but also not chasing the benefiaries of spending (ie semiconductors). The cost of semiconductors is now 35% of all AI capex, leading to questions about whether it will lead to demand destruction. In commodities, oil is only modestly higher after things looked to have settled between the US and Iran while gold is flat. To the day ahead, watch for a possible Supreme Court decision about whether US President Donald Trump has the authority to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
Conscious uncoupling: Comcast shares are soaring 22% on plans to split its media business from its cable and internet business. Shares recently hit a 13-year low. NBCUniversal will become its own publically traded company, though will continue to have a dual-class share structure giving the Roberts family control. It’s a frequent script these cable and telecoms follow: falling in and out of love with media assets (think AT&T Time Warner, BCE & CTV Globe Media, Verizon and Huffington Post). We appear to be in the “love me not phase” of the cycle.
Space junk: Charter Communications is surging 23% (also off a 13-year low) on reports it is in discussion with SpaceX on partnering with a mobile phone offering. This would involve running SpaceX phone traffic through Charter infrastructure. It would be a boon to SpaceX trying to grow its telecom business. Charter is likely also benefitting from the Comcast news as options surface to unlock value.
Paper rockets: Rocket Lab is buying satellite telephone company Iridium in an $8 billion cash and stock deal. The move creates a vertically integrated challenger to SpaceX combining Rocket Lab’s launch capabilities with Iridium’s low-Earth orbit satellite network. Both stocks are higher in the pre-market.
Chill out: ATB Cormark is sticking with its outperform rating on Abaxx following an investor call Thursday to push back on the recent short-seller report. The team’s argument: don’t read too much into low open interest right now — building a brand-new exchange takes real time and capital from clearing firms and brokers before volume shows up, and the early signs are good, with average daily open interest up 232% in June versus May. Management also made clear they are under no regulator investigation. “Abaxx is well-capitalized with over $97MM in cash as of June 2026, supported by a recent $69MM financing. Management stated the net cash burn rate averages $12.3MM per quarter. This leaves the company with a secure, seven quarter runway without needing to raise more capital,” wrote ATB’s Martin Toner.
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