Global government spending is reshaping the investing landscape—but are you following where the money is actually going? While everyone is focused on AI, Bryden Teich, Chief Investment Officer at Avenue Investment Management, argues the biggest market story is the massive fiscal spending boom unfolding across Canada, the U.S., and around the world. He explains why industrials, financials, energy infrastructure, and other resilient businesses stand to benefit, why he’s still bullish on Canada despite recent economic challenges, why he’s underweight big tech, why he trimmed gold after its surge, and how he builds a portfolio designed to perform through changing market cycles.
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There is a temptation to resist the corporate cowboy cosplay on full display at the Stampede but I’ve learned over the years the best thing to do is just give yourself over to it. There is something very equalizing about meeting billion-dollar CEOs while sporting matching cowboy boots and comparing belt buckles.
Here are five things to know today:
Pendulum: Tech stocks are swinging into the red after Samsung’s quarterly results failed to impress. Make no mistake – the company’s profit soared to a record thanks to the AI boom. But the magnitude of the beat was a measly 1% and with the stock up 141% so far in 2026 that is not enough to satiate the bulls. The stock fell 9% in South Korean trade and this morning semiconductors are taking it on the chin with the sector down 4%. At the same, software stocks are pumping higher this morning with Microsoft, Salesforce, ServiceNow, and Intuit popping (all names that have been run over on AI disruption fears/shiny chip stocks stealing focus). The disconnect between semiconductors and software has been stark (see chart below from Jim Reid at Deutsche Bank). Maybe we are seeing an early reversion to the mean trade taking hold. I feel good about taking profits on Micron, I think Intel is next.
Fly me to the moon: SpaceX is a disrupting factor today with its inclusion into the NASDAQ 100 potentially creating selling pressure on hot areas of the market. Especially when banks are out in full force covering the stock this morning – mostly with buy ratings – and eye watering price targets. With 28 buys, 5 holds and 1 sell (Morningstar) the average price target implies 47% upside from here. The stock went public on June 11th at $135/share and is already up 18% since. The scene stealer comes from Raymond James which slapped a street-high $800/share price target. That implies a $10.5 trillion market cap. “We see the company as one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21stcentury,” wrote Brian Gesuale of Raymond James. His thesis is that going to space will become as easy as flying an airplane. “Starship reduces the cost of transporting mass to orbit by more than 99%, while increasing payload capacity by an order of magnitude, transforming access to space from a scarce capability into an abundant industrial platform,” he wrote. What about valuation? This is where it gets fun. Just a cool 92.7x adjusted EBITDA on 2028 numbers. But! But! But! A very reasonable 27x on 2031 numbers. The kind of math that only takes place on Elon Musk companies. Having said that, math has never mattered much to his companies and generational wealth can me made even when valuations don’t make sense.
Sniffing around: Fiserv is popping 5% after the Wall Street Journal reported several banks are interested in doing a deal for the embattled payments platform. Shares have imploded over the past year after catastrophic quarterly results in the fall last year in which profit missed, the forecast was cut and the CEO left. A compounder until it wasn’t, Fiserv fell victum to years of cutting costs and reducing investments that came home to roost. The banks aren’t interested in the whole company, according to the WSJ, just in purchasing the debit card network. If the banks own a network, they can be exempt from a federal law that limits debit card fees. Because of that, analysts are skeptical this deal will happen and the share bump is likely a reflection of the stock being so beaten up that any signs of value in the business create excitement.
Cleared for takeoff: Air Canada is getting upgraded to buy at National Bank. “Air Canada shares have rebounded strongly in response to lower jet fuel prices and what we view as a lower risk of potential labour disruptions this summer,” wrote National’s Cameron Doerksen who increased his price target to $29/share. Aeroplan is also an underappreciated asset that creates less cyclical sources of cash flow for the airline, says Doerksen in a separate report. He notes that membership has doubled since it bought back the business in 2019 and accounts for 20-23% of profitability.
Pipe dreams: Days after the West Coast Pipeline proposal, Ontario and Alberta joined forces to propose another pipeline. This time moving crude from Hardisty, Alberta to Sarnia, Ontario. It’s a partial revival of TC Energy’s failed Energy East pipeline. Directionally, very positive for an industry which has been in the penalty box for decades. But practically unlikely to happen according to analysts. “While we appreciate the political sentiment behind this proposed project (energy security, domestic supply chains, jobs), there are numerous pipeline proposals currently in development that feature more positive economic and strategic attributes,” wrote TD’s Aaron MacNeil noting there was no private proponent, Manitoba isn’t supportive, and the federal government wasn’t part of the deal. We’ll put this all to Greg Ebel of Enbridge when he joins me in front of a live audience tomorrow! It’s a can’t miss episode and should be out on Thursday if all goes according to plan!
