In the Money: 5 Things to Know

Futures waver, oil advances, Meta’s nuclear deal, Dollar General pops, notable calls

In the last 24 hours I have been sent into a frenzied search for soccer jerseys, the pink bathing suit with the small flowers on it that she hasn’t worn in two years but needs in the next five minutes, and of course, the damn bunny. I’m one lost sock away from putting a GPS in everything we own.

On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, we speak with Josh Young, founder of Bison Interests, for a sharp, high-conviction conversation on the state of oil and gas investing. Based in Houston, Texas, Josh is a U.S. energy investor with a soft spot for Canadian oil and gas names. From small-cap bargains to activist shakeups, mergers, and Josh’s contrarian take on the oil cycle—this episode is a must-watch for investors looking to find value where others see risk. You can listen on Apple, Spotify or here.

All good: Futures are under mild pressure this morning ostensibly because the OECD cut their global growth forecasts for a second time this year and warning the US will only grow at 1.6%. It is a weak excuse for a sell-off given their last update was in March, before the tariff terror gripped the markets. “Tariffs are here, and the OECD just got the memo,” wrote Scotia’s Derek Holt. To emphasize how behind the OECD may be, the Atlanta Fed GDP now indicator is showing the US economy expanded a whopping 4.6% in the second quarter on higher consumer spending and business investment. The S&P 500 is less than 4% from an all-time high and the TSX just hit a fresh all-time high yesterday. The headlines are worse than the markets.

Bad news is good news: Difficult headlines are also translating to higher prices for oil. Crude is advancing for a second day in a row despite OPEC+ decision to increase oil production for a third month in a row. Global investors are starting to pay attention to devastating wildfires that are raging across Alberta and near oil producing facilities. Cenovus, MEG Energy and Canadian Natural Resources have all curtailed production. About 7% of Canada’s energy output has been shut down as a result of the fires, according to Bloomberg. The amount of production reduced in Canada is almost equivalent to the amount that OPEC+ increased production. Although hopefully the wildfires are a temporary state of affairs. Investors will once again turn their attention to the prospect of M&A in the patch. This morning Bloomberg is reporting that Petroliam Nasional, Malaysia’s state-owned energy producer, is exploring a sale of its Canadian business. It’s hunting season for energy bankers!

Power hungry: Constellation Energy is soaring 9% after signing a 20-year nuclear energy deal with Meta. This is the first major power deal on existing assets. For Meta, it guarantees a reliable source of energy to fuel their AI ambitions. Nuclear stocks are loving it this morning with Cameco (+5), Vistra (+4%), and Oklo (+5%) all higher in the pre-market. This is the second major deal for Constellation Energy with a hyperscaler. Microsoft signed a power deal with them back in September that restarted Three Mile Island which was dormant since 2019.

General store: Shares of Dollar General are popping 9% after boosting its sales and profit forecast. This comes as a relief to investors who were worried about their ability to weather tariffs. Dollar General says sales will increase 2.5% – higher than their previous outlook before tariffs of 2.2%. However, the US-based dollar-store operator did warn that part of how they will weather tariffs is through price increases. Still, the stock rally is impressive. Put this in the “not as bad as feared” category. “We believe positive momentum potentially sets up (Dollar General) for future beats as execution improves,” wrote Evercore’s Greg Melich.

Notable calls: Cormark is upgrading Dye & Durham to speculative buy after the company announced a new CEO on the same day the former CEO pushed for a sale. Cormark’s Gavin Fairweather is impressed with the new hire. “We were impressed by the caliber of talent recruited and think the news sets the stage for an acceleration in execution on the turnaround and balance sheet fix,” he wrote in the upgrade. “While we think the turnaround will take time to play out, we do see multiple paths to significant shareholder value creation.” His price target is $13.50/share (well below where former CEO Matthew Proud says the stock should be trading @+$20/share). BMO is downgrading Parkland saying investor’s should tender to Sunoco’s controversial offer. Recall, Parkland looked set to lose a proxy battle and before the official vote, the company inked a deal to be sold to Sunoco. The vote on the deal was moved to June 24th. “In our view, SUN’s offer represents the best near-term outcome for PKI shareholders, particularly given ongoing shareholder overhang and recent operational challenges,” wrote BMO’s John Gibson. Desjardin is taking a hatchet to their oil price assumptions. “We have trimmed our 2026 WTI price deck to US$55/bbl (from US$60/bbl), reflecting our increasingly bearish outlook,” wrote Desjardins’ Chris MacCulloch. “Accordingly, we have downgraded Imperial Oil to Sell (from Hold) along with Tamarack Valley and Whitecap to Hold (from Buy),” he wrote.