In the Money: 5 Things to Know

All-time highs & tariffs, Bank of Canada decision day, Wells Fargo uncapped, CrowdStrike falls, Dollar Tree warns

While three adults are trying to help Child 1 brush her teeth, neglected Child 2 and Child 3 are discussing the dwarf planet Makemake and debating whether or not it is a gas planet or solid. Maybe parenting really is about doing less.

Watch full episode: Oil prices are stuck, energy stocks are sliding—but are investors missing the upside? In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Texas-based energy investor Josh Young, founder of Bison Interests, lays out his contrarian thesis on the oil market, revealing why he believes the best opportunities right now are in small and mid-cap names, particularly in Canadian oil stocks.

Two hands: On one hand the futures are higher, global stocks set their first all-time high since February, and the S&P 500 has staged a near 20% gain from the post-Liberation day low. On the other hand, headlines around tariffs remain negative with higher tariffs on steel being implemented today (50% from 25%) and lack of any trade deal announcements. It is being called an “unloved” rally because markets should be in a bad mood on tariffs. Instead companies are saying they can manage and there is optimism that the US doesn’t really want to drive it’s economy off a cliff. Markets got a jolt of energy yesterday after a read of job openings in the US came in higher than expected signalling that companies are still out there hiring despite tariff uncertainty. Remember we get jobs data on both sides of the border on Friday.

Nail biter: The Bank of Canada will make it’s trendsetting interest rate decision and the odds have been shifting in favour of holding rates steady for a second meeting in a row after Canada’s GDP came in higher than expected last week. Core inflation was also elevated at the last reading. The only thing that favours a rate cut right now is the jobs picture. Unemployment is expected to hit 7% when the numbers come out on Friday, the highest since the pandemic. “The BoC has already cut 225 bps, more than any other developed market central banks (except the RBNZ which is tied), and the economy was starting to react favourably in the back half of 2024,” wrote BMO’s Benjamin Reitzes. It will be interesting to see how holding rates affects a nascent recovery in home prices in Canada’s largest housing market. Home prices in Toronto increased (ever so slightly) after five months of declines. It seems like the price was finally right as sales increased faster than new listings.

Uncapped: Wells Fargo is popping 2% in the pre-market after the Federal Reserve lifted an asset cap that has been in place for seven years. The cap, which limited how big the bank could grow, was put in place because Wells Fargo was caught creating fake accounts for clients across various business lines. Wells Fargo was unable to grow it’s book beyond 2017 levels until it showed that it had cleaned up its act. Looks like they have satisfied regulators. The asset cap has also been a cap on the stock, Wells Fargo shares have trailed the S&P 500 bank index since it was implemented. Analysts are optmistic the bank can now eneter a period of growth. “Expect the earnings profile of the company to change as trading and investment banking are likely to be key areas of growth,” wrote JP Morgan’s Vivek Juneja. TD shareholders may be taking note. TD is also subject to an asset cap after anti-money laundering failures. Although, fun fact, shares of TD have *outperformed* since the cap was announced in October (+20% vs + 12% for the TSX bank index)

Crowded out: Shares of CrowdStrike are down nearly 7% after it’s sales forecast missed expectations that prompted a slew of downgrades. The cybersecurity company’s forecast for sales was lower than expected. Investors are overlooking 20% increase in sales and a beat on profit in the reported quarter. “We applaud CrowdStrike’s success but think further upside to our model could be increasingly difficult to achieve,” wrote Canaccord’s Kingsley Crane in his downgrade. “The combination of full valuation and a theme of one-time events that keep coming up makes it difficult to see meaningful upside from these levels,” wrote Evercore’s Peter Levine in his downgrade. The stock is trading at an all-time high and perhaps that makes it an easy candidate to sell. Dan Ives at Wedbush isn’t giving up his buy rating. “(CrowdStrike) remains the gold standard for cybersecurity with the company in the early innings of its multi-year growth story,” said Ives in a note to clients.

Money doesn’t grow on Dollar Tree: Shares of Dollar Tree are under a bit of pressure after warning that tariffs will reduce profit by as much as 50%. This comes in stark contrast to rival Dollar General this week which actually boosted its profit forecast. However, Dollar General has bigger exposure to consumables (80% of sales) while Dollar Tree has more exposure to tariffs on Chinese goods. The stock is getting clipped, but has been on a great run in 2025 in part because a constrained consumer is increasingly shopping at these stores. That showed up in the results with sales increasing 5.4% and investors are clearly taking comfort because the stock isn’t getting hammered. “We expect the stock direction to come down to management’s
explanation of guidance, but given the soft 2Q outlook, and guidance for 2H to accelerate, shares are likely to be slightly pressured,” wrote Citi’s Paul Lejuez.