NEW EPISODE: Prime Minister Mark Carney declared a new world order at Davos this week, what does that mean for your money? In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Amber sits down with David Picton, CEO of PICTON Investments, Canada’s largest hedge fund, to unpack what a shifting global order means for investors. Tune in now!
Please check on Toronto moms. Yesterday was signup day for one of the city’s biggest summer camps. Unsure what was more stressful: getting Taylor Swift tickets or securing a spot for my kids. We were told to log in at 12pm. Perfect. Smack in the middle of the workday. Instead of access, you’re greeted with a countdown clock telling you when you’re allowed to enter the site. Palms are sweaty. Then my waitlist number appears. 100 people ahead of me. Panic sets in. The mom group chats explode, wtfs everywhere. One mom says she has 800 people ahead of her. I don’t reply. Every woman (and yes, it’s all women) for herself. To make a long story long: we got in. And then I picked a fight with my husband for not appreciating what I’d just been through.
Here are five things to know:
Adrift: US futures are mildly lower after a rally yesterday. So what was the cost of this Greenland sojourn? For the S&P 500, it is on track to lose about 0.5% on the week. The TSX flat. Gold hit new records. Under the hood, the rotation trade remained alive and well. The equal weighted S&P 500 is outperforming in 2026, the Magnificent 7 is in the red, and small caps are up nearly 10%. Change is in the air. Overnight, the markets are calm about the Bank of Japan’s decision not to increase interest rates at this meeting. Inflation needs to be controlled but rising deficits and higher yields present a problem for the central bank’s ability to raise rates as much as they’d like right now. A problem for another day. Bond markets are tame. Usually, we can look forward to a weekend of rest. However the last three weekends have looked like this: Venezuela raid, Fed Chair subpoena, Greenland threats. Who knows what horrors await us this weekend. An artic blast is for sure. Natural gas is up 50% in the last three days.
Surprise surprise: Intel is plunging 13% after warning that manufacturing problems would weigh next quarter’s sales and profit. I should have seen this coming. David Lutz at Jones Trading pointed out that Intel has only traded up on two of its earning reports in the last two years. The 150% rally over the past year is hitting a reality check this morning. Intel is struggling to make enough quality chips to keep up with demand. This might be okay if it was a demand problem, but in this instance it is because Intel’s own manufacturing process is so terrible that not all chips produced are good enough to be sold. This is overshadowing the fact that earnings in this quarter beat expectations. Intel’s fumble may be AMD’s gain which is one of their main competitors. Indeed, shares of AMD are rallying 3% in the pre-market.
Charge it: Capital One is down 3% in the pre-market after earnings missed expectations and it announced a $5.1 billion acquisition of fintech Brex (not to be confused with Bre-X). Higher spending weighed on the bottom line at the credit card company as it digests its acquisition of Discover Financial. Brex’s platform offers credit, expense management and business accounts for startups and high growth businesses and boasts 35,000 companies on its platform. It was a VC darling that fetched a $12 billion valuation in January 2022. Of course, much has come back down to earth since then. Most analyst commentary is pretty positive despite the miss. “While (management) noted continued upward pressure to efficiency in the near term, we like the destination as (management) is clearly intentional about investing in the franchise,” wrote Citi’s Keith Horowitz in a note to clients, “We find the combination compelling as Discover added consumer card scale and network ownership, and Brex adds a foothold in the business payments space.”
Activist file: Ag Growth International is being targeted by activist investor Plantro amidst the departure of its CEO last week according to reports from Bloomberg. Plantro is backed by Matthew Proud, the former CEO of Dye & Durham, who seems to have caught the activist bug. In addition to trying to buy out his former company before abandoning the bid and lambasting the board, he has been targeting other companies like Information Serves and Calian. Proud said in an interview in September with the Globe and Mail there are big value arbitrages to be had in the Canadian market. The embattled grain handling company could be an example of that. Ag Growth has struggled amidst a downturn in spending by farmers, delays to its quarterly filings, and accounting issues in its Brazil division. The former hedge fund darling is half of what it was worth two years ago after reportedly rebuking significantly higher takeout offers. The valuation is compelling, argues TD which has a buy rating, and the clouds appear to be parting with a recent audit showing no material concerns with its compliance or financial reporting. “On an EV/FTM EBITDA basis, (Ag Growth) is trading at 6.4x, representing a discount to its 10-year historical average EV/FTM EBITDA valuation of 8.5x,” wrote TD’s Michael Tupholme in a note on January 13th, “By comparison, on average, peers are trading at 18.0x and 17.3x on 2025E and 2026E EBITDA, respectively.”
Retail therapy: The advance read of retail sales for December shows consumer spending stalled out falling 0.5% from the big gains in November. “In other words, the November gain hasn’t changed what has been a broadly sideways trend in retail spending since the start of 2025,” wrote CIBC’s Andrew Grantham.
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