Long-term investing, Barry Schwartz reminds us, is a simple math problem that most investors overcomplicate — and as a self-described permabull, he’s here to explain why staying constructive matters even in the years that test you. Amber and the President & CIO of Baskin Wealth Management dig into the final trading month of the year as Barry breaks down why earnings growth powered the 2025 rally, why double-digit profit growth is still ahead, and why one off-trend year never justifies abandoning a sound philosophy. He also opens up about Baskin’s performance, the pressure of chasing the index, and why he still won’t touch gold miners despite their monster gains. Listen now on Spotify, Apple or YouTube.
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I feel like I am doing a version of Amazing Race this holiday season. But instead of competing against others running around the world for a prize, the game is going to holiday parties and Christmas recitals all month without getting sick while everyone else around me drops like flies. Like all good challenges, there are obstacles thrown your way. Yesterday, I was called to Child 2’s school because she threw up. Child 1 has been home for two days. But I’ve been mainlining vitamin C for weeks, I won’t go down without a fight!
Here are five things to know:
Bad news is good news: Futures are in the green after a read of the US job market showed a plunge in hiring bolstering expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week. In the absence of official government data, the ADP private payrolls has stepped in to fill in the gaps. The reading for November, released this morning, showed the US shed 32,000 jobs compared to the expected 10,000 gain. The market has fully priced in a rate cut at the Fed meeting next week. At the same time, US President Donald Trump hinted that he is ready to announce a new Fed Chair “early next year” and strongly implied that it would be Kevin Hassett, the current National Economic Council Director. “If I were at the helm of the Fed, I would be cutting rates right now because the data suggests that we should,” said Hassett in a November interview on Fox News. I’m sure that’s what he said in the job interview as well. It is quieter in Canada although we got a read of home sales in Toronto and they are pretty bleak. Overall home sales dropped 15% from last year while condo sales dropped 22%. In corporate news, watch Enbridge after the pipeline operator announced its profit targets for next year which were slightly below expectations.
Marching to the beat: Royal Bank and National Bank both beat profit expectations and raised their dividend despite setting aside more money than expected for loans that could go bad. The chief complaint about Royal Bank is that it is expensive, but this quarter was a good example of why. Earnings per share surged 25% thanks to a surge in capital markets. The profit growth was pretty broad based, however, with strength in all divisions including in the Canadian business, corporate banking and wealth management. Not only that, the bank also boosted its return on equity target from 16% to 17%. National Bank also beat expectations thanks to a 64% surge in capital markets. Profit got a big boost from its acquisition of Canadian Western Bank as well. It also plans to have 17% return on equity, but by 2027. The blemish on the results is credit quality, says TD’s Mario Mendonca, with losses at Canadian Western Bank and new formations at its Cambodian bank driving provisions higher than expected. Still, Mendonca calls the overall results positive.
Hold the phone: Telus announced it will pause dividend growth as the dividend yield stuck its neck out above 9%. Usually a dividend yield that high indicates investor concerns about sustainability. Shares of Telus hit a 12-year low on Monday and shares are down nearly 50% from the all-time high in 2022. Telus says it plans to maintain its current payout “until such time as our share price and associated dividend yield better reflects the considerable growth prospects for Telus.” Barry Schwartz spoke about Telus on the podcast. He’s not really a dividend investor and said when it comes to the telcos they are all running into a math problem. “The free cash flow does not cover the dividend at Telus,” said Schwartz, “You have two things you can do: either keep going until you hit a wall, or make the decision that you cut the dividend.” BCE cut their dividend in half earlier this year and the stock is up about 10% since then, underperforming the 24% gain for the TSX over that time.
Shop til ya drop: American Eagle and Macy’s are both delivered stronger than expected quarterly results and boosted their forecasts for the year. American Eagle is soaring 13% in the pre-market after their controversial campaign with Sydney Sweeney helped to power sales. The retailer is also boosting its forecast for the full year. It’s a big turnaround from earlier this year when it warned about its results in the spring. Since then, it launched a campaign with Sweeney and has featured Travis Kelce in a few campaigns. American Eagle now says sales will grow a little bit which is an improvement from their preview view that sales would be flat. Macy’s, on the other hand, was up in the pre-market but is trading down 6% as their outlook for the holiday quarter profit wasn’t as robust as analysts were expecting. This is overshadowing a generally positive quarter in which it delivered a surprise profit, significantly higher same-store sales, and the best quarterly sales in 13 quarters. Shares of Macy’s have been on a tear, up 34% in this year and trading at a two-year high. All in all, retailers have been robust against a backdrop of concern for the American consumer. The positive results from Macy’s and American Eagle echo similar results from Kohl’s, Best Buy and Dick’s Sporting Goods which all raised their forecasts when they reported.
Techlandia: Marvell is soaring 10% after touting a stronger outlook than expected and deepening its AI platform with a $3 billion acquisition of Celestial AI. The custom chipmaker said it expects data centre revenue tied to AI to grow more than 25% next year. It also predicted that custom chip sales would increase 20% after the purchase of startup Celestial AI. Celestial’s technology enables high bandwidth, low latency data movement between AI chips and memory chips using far less energy. “With Marvell acquiring Celestial AI, we believe this unlocks revenue and (total addressable market),” wrote Stifel’s Tore Svanberg. 
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