Can oil hit $200? What about $250? Our guest in this episode says its a possibility of the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. The oil market has been rocked by escalating tensions in the Middle East, massive price swings, and a growing debate over whether the world is heading into a full-blown energy shock. In this special two-part episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, we bring you perspectives from both sides of the market with Josh Young, Portfolio Manager at Bison Investments, and Patrick O’Rourke, Managing Director, Institutional Equity Research at ATB Cormark Capital Markets
The kids spent the night at grandmas aka the land of no rules. They’ll come back sleep deprived and in withdrawal from unfettered access to candy. But for an extra 20 minutes of sleep in the morning? It’s a price that is worth paying.
Here are five things to know today:
Crude awakening: US futures are under pressure as oil is moving higher once again and anxieties about private credit rise to the surface. Oil is rallying 7% as Iran launched fresh attacks on ships in the region and also launched further assaults on Dubai. Bonds continue to be pressured on concerns this will push inflation higher and reduce the odds of a rate cut. Concerns about private credit are also weighing on risk appetite this morning. Morgan Stanley and Cliffwater LLC are capping withdrawals from their credit fund. This is pressuring alternative asset managers like KKR (-2.6%), Blue Owl (-4%), and Blackstone (-2.5%) in the pre-market. But other banks like Citi(-2%) and Goldman Sachs(-2%) are also under pressure. As a group, US financials have been weak, down 12% from the peak in January with asset managers faring much worse down 27% from January as anxieties grow over loan quality and investors ask for their money back.
Ripple effect: The war in Iran has a ripple effect outside of just energy. Shares of Nutrien are at a three-year high on higher fertilizer prices because of the war. Roughly one third of global fertilizers pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East is also a key exporter of urea and ammonia – two key fertilizers. Jefferies is upgrading Nutrien to buy on the rise in fertilizer prices noting that it is happening just as spring planting season is beginning. The price target implies there is still 21.5% upside. Coal prices are also elevated because of LNG disruptions. When LNG prices rise and supply is constrained, countries switch to coal which increases demand. The COAL ETF is up 7% since conflict broke out. On the downside, the Canadian rails have been hit on concerns that the war will lower consumer demand as input costs increase and weigh on margins. Travel stocks like airlines and cruiselines are also sharply lower on a diminished travel outlook and higher fuel costs. These are sectors to watch if the clouds start to part.
Zinberg out: The turmoil at goeasy as shaken the confidence of one of its most ardent defenders, Jordan Zinberg at Bedford Park Capital, who is no longer a shareholder. Zinberg told me that based on Tuesday’s announcement the investment thesis changed significantly and he decided to exit the position. The stock fell an additional 18% bringing the two-day losses to 75% after the company announced it was taking a charge on bad auto loans, yanking its financial forecasts and suspending buybacks and dividends. Zinberg was on the podcast in November and said he believed the stock was a buy. Part of that was due to his belief that new CEO Dan Rees would be able to shore up confidence after a short-seller report. However, Rees announced his departure a few weeks after Zinberg’s appearance.
Wheels on the bus: Watch shares of NFI after profit came in significantly ahead of expectations despite lower than expected sales. The bus maker had slightly lower sales than expected on lower deliveries and less aftermarket reveue than anticpated. However, the average selling price was higher and helped to support margins. The company’s outlook was also higher. “Overall, a strong print and encouraging 2026 outlook with few/no major supply chain concerns currently (including steel/aluminum),” wrote Daryl Young of Stifel, “NFI shares have continued to trade at a very depressed valuation following the string of operational challenges in 2024/2025, but we are cautiously optimistic that the business is stabilizing.”
Walking down the aisle: Watch shares of Empire at the open after the grocer delivered in-line profit and slightly better comparable same-store sales. Food sales grew 2%, less than the rate of inflation. However, gross margins unexpectedly declined and this could hurt the stock although analysts say this was due to some one-time items. The parent company of Sobey’s and Farm Boy has struggled compared to Loblaw which is up 34% over the past year compared to just 11.5% for Empire.
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