WATCH EPISODE: Is the gold rally just getting started? In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, legendary resource investor Rick Rule returns to explain why he believes we’re still in the early innings of a major gold bull market and why silver, uranium, and select copper plays could deliver massive upside over the next decade.
I hear snotty coughs coming from the kids’ room and my youngest just came into my room saying, “My eyeball is hurting.” And so it begins.
Here are 5 things to know today:
TGIF: Markets fell for a third session in a row and this morning futures are generally lower. Stronger economic data in the US had traders reduce the number of rate cuts priced in for the rest of the year. There are fresh tariff headlines with the US unveiling a new broad range of tariffs on branded drugs, furniture, and heavy-duty trucks. But it appears markets are in wait-and-see mode as we await a key read of inflation – the PCE Price Index which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. It comes out at 8:30amET and it is expected to show an increase in inflation further dampening hopes of more rate cuts. Most assets are flat ahead of this reading.
Constellation of one: Shares of Constellation Software plunged 6% yesterday to a one-year low after the surprise resignation of its founder and CEO Mark Leonard for health reasons. Constellation Software has been one of the greatest compounders on the TSX since going public with the stock up more than 24,000% since 2006 (the TSX is up 350% over that time). Up until the beginning of 2025 it has only had one down year since going public – 2022 when it fell 9%. Well now it is on track for its second down year, -12% so far in 2025. Leonard was reclusive and media shy but simultanously loomed large to the point of lore at Constellation Software. National Bank downgraded the stock on the back of the resignation because the “cachet” that Leonard brought will no longer be there. “It’s that cachet that’s qualitatively added a premium multiple over and above the company’s consistent execution,” wrote National’s Richard Tse. On the other hand, RBC’s Paul Treiber believes the culture he created will endure. “Constellation’s programmatic approach to capital allocation and fostering of best practice sharing across 1,000+ software businesses has created a deep “culture of capitalists” at Constellation,” wrote Treiber in a note, “While Mark Leonard is no longer President of Constellation, the processes and incentives designed by him will help drive the company’s continued compounding of capital at high rates, in our view.”
Never enough: Shares of Costco are under slight pressure despite profit beating expectations. US sales growth was slightly below expectations but still a robust 5.1% (against the expectation for 5.2%). Sales in Canada grew strongly at 6.3% vs the estimate of 5.5%. The bigger issue for shareholders is that the stock continues to be expensive and has gone nowhere in 2025. It takes more than slight beats to move the needle. Raymond James acknowledges that it is trading at a premium vs its historical average (47x forward earnings vs three-year average of 38x). “We believe the premium vs. historical is warranted given Costco’s consistent execution, defensive category mix, and strong member loyalty,” argues Ray Jay’s Bobby Griffin.
Shorts weather: Aya Gold & Silver was the worst performing stock on the TSX yesterday falling 15.5% after a short-seller accused the company of manipulating resource updates. Blue Orca alleged that Aya Gold & Silver inflated its silver resource by over 100% calling them “phantom ounces.” In some ways this was itching at an old scar because it had already warned of lower grades. “The short report focused on resource updates in 2021 and attempts to use recent operational results to suggest that resource updates in 2021 were manipulated,” wrote Bryce Adams at Desjardins, “Aya provided a detailed rebuttal tonight that included strong block model reconciliation to date and ongoing compliance with NI 43-101 regulations.”
Recall: Watch shares of NFI at the open after the bus-maker announced a recall of certain zero-emission bus models due to faulty batteries. The company warned of a material warranty provision to be recorded in their upcoming third quarter results. However, they said they should be able to show strength in the fourth quarter and touted a record $13.5 billion backlog.
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