The world is entering a new era of commodity volatility — and the infrastructure that powers global markets may be overdue for a redesign. Josh Crumb, Founder & CEO of Abaxx Technologies, joins In the Money with Amber Kanwar to explain why he believes the next generation of commodity markets will look very different from the ones investors rely on today. Abaxx was a market darling last year surging 360% and becoming a $1 billion company despite being in its infancy. This year has been volatile with the stock down 28%. We do a deep dive into this complex business to help investors understand what all the fuss is about.
Abaxx aims to redesign outdated market structures for emerging and underserved commodities by creating physically deliverable futures exchanges, focusing on better price discovery, risk management, and reflexivity between paper and physical markets.
- Target underserved commodities — The company prioritizes markets like LNG, battery metals, carbon credits, and gold (with a Singapore hub), where incumbents (e.g., ICE, CME, LME) have not built proper physical products from first principles.
- Emphasize physical delivery — Unlike many cash-settled indexes relying on price assessments (e.g., Platts or Fastmarkets), Abaxx enables actual possession and delivery to create true arbitrage and convergence between futures and physical markets.
- Long-term infrastructure play — Viewed as a “winner-take-all” opportunity similar to WTI crude on CME (valued at $7-10B market cap), with LNG alone potentially a $5B+ asset; the goal is to scale to high volumes (e.g., millions of lots/day) through network effects, new products, and onboarding traders/banks.
2. Why the Stock Is Down: Short-Term Noise Amid Price Discovery
The stock has declined ~35% in 2026 after a prior run-up to billion-dollar market cap, despite strong fundamentals in thesis validation and growth.
- High short interest and pressure — Around 40% of recent volume from net new shorts, contributing to downward pressure during a rerating/price discovery phase after a big end-of-year run and index inclusion/ETF flows.
- Market dynamics and volatility — The company is in early stages with low current revenue and ongoing losses, making it vulnerable to sentiment shifts, borrowing via ETFs, and broader market noise, even as milestones progress.
- Not a fundamental concern — Crumb views it as short-term frustration rather than worry, citing a healthy cash position (post-fundraise, ~1 year’s working capital), rapid volume growth since last summer, and upcoming products/network additions to drive long-term value.
3. Pulling Back on ESG: Still Relevant for Compliance-Driven Risk Management
While the broader ESG/ energy transition narrative has cooled politically (e.g., under current administrations, focus on energy security/oil production), Abaxx’s environmental markets remain pragmatic and tied to regulatory/compliance needs rather than trendy voluntary trends.
- Focus on compliance markets — Products target regulated areas like CORSIA (airline carbon offsetting), where volumes are growing; Abaxx has achieved unique milestones like the first full physical delivery/title transfer of carbon credits through a regulated clearinghouse.
- Ongoing demand from commitments — Large companies (e.g., Microsoft with net-zero/net-negative goals) still require offsets despite data center growth or political shifts; hedging tools for renewables (e.g., weather contracts for wind/solar) address real risks like intermittency.
- Pragmatic, non-political approach — Abaxx avoids pure voluntary carbon hype, providing risk management across all energy forms (including coal); growth may be slower without prior “hot” momentum, but client-driven needs persist for balancing environmental externalities with energy security.
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DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated and should be checked against actual delivery. The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
