On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Andrey Omelchak, President, CEO & CIO at LionGuard Capital, breaks down one of the biggest shifts happening in markets right now. As AI fears hammer software valuations and once-untouchable names get cut in half, small and mid-cap stocks are quietly catching a bid. Andrey explains why he believes the market has overreacted in parts of software — but also why select small caps, defense plays, and “Build Canada” beneficiaries may offer stronger risk-adjusted returns from here.
Deep in Grade 3 drama. I can’t say too much but its a tale of betrayal and exposed crushes. In many ways its like being transported 30 years back in time to relive the same trials and tribulations. Except this time I’m the parent. I have the unenviable task of parenting my former self which seems to bring unending satisfaction to my own mother.
Here are five things to know today:
Trade and war: Futures are grasping for direction being pulled in two different directions. Bulls are taking comfort in a New York Times report that Iranian intelligence as reached out to the US to end the war. However, investors were blindsided by comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that the 15% global tariff may take effect this week. In terms of market damage, both the S&P 500 and the TSX are down only about 2% from their respective record highs. While crude oil is advancing to an 8-month high, its curious that energy investors took profits yesterday with both Canadian and US energy stocks finishing in the red. I’ll ask Eric Nuttall about what that means for the longevity of the oil trade. That episode will come out tomorrow.
Striking out: Investors are apathetic about CrowdStrike’s latest results with the stock barely higher in the pre-market. Results were straight down the fairway with sales, profit and its forecast in-line with expectations. After a 30% drawdown on the AI scare, the results aren’t enough to entice shareholders. “We continue to believe that CRWD’s position as the gold standard of cybersecurity remains firmly unchanged in the face of this software sell-off,” wrote Dan Ives of Wedbush. He believes AI will be a tailwind to the business. The results themselves were strong with sales up 24% and annual recurring revenue coming from new customers hitting a record.
The water’s warm: Latham Group is surging 16% after a rosy forecast and an acquisition of a fiberlass pool maker. The company is the largest designer and manufacturer of in ground swimming pools in North America, Australia, and New Zealand. Not only were sales higher than expected this quarter, but it gave an outlook for sales that was significantly higher. I guess swimming pools can’t be disrupted by AI – not yet. The company also announced it is buying an Australian and New Zealand pool manufacturer, Freedom Pools. Latham expects the deal to boost sales and profit right away. Ewing Morris touted the name on the podcast when their founders were on last year.
Ripped jeans: Abercrombie is plunging 7% after comparable sales came in below expectations and a warning that tariffs will hurt the upcoming quarter. While their Abercrombie brand didn’t fall as much as feared, softness in Hollister weighed on results. The retailer is warning that sales in the upcoming quarter will be weaker than expected projecting just 2% growth vs the street near 5%. Earnings will also be sharply lower than consensus. The retailer is blaming tariffs with the forecast including the impact of the 15% tariff on all imported goods into the United States. This is overshadowing a solid quarter that featured record sales for a thirteenth quarter in a row.
Earnings roundup: Shares of GranTierra will likely come under pressure after profit fell short of expectations. The oil producer already pre-announced production, but its profit came in below expectations on lower realized prices. MDA Space will be in focus after a mixed quarter. On the plus side, profit and sales were higher than expected while its outlook was also better. But the space observation and geointelligence company put up worse sales in the robotics and space operations than anticipated. Still sales hit a record growing 44% over the past year. “We view the results as positive, given the strong revenue and EBITDA growth in the quarter, and see the company’s guidance as somewhat conservative for 2026,” wrote RBC’s Ken Herbert. Keep an eye on Capital Power after the power generation company reported an in-line quarter and it confirmed its outlook. I missed PetValu yesterday which fell 11% on an earnings miss and worse margin forecast on value conscious consumers. Analysts aren’t recommending you buy the dip with CIBC and National Bank downgrading the stock.
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