The Nasdaq 100 went from a seven-month low to a record high in April—posting its biggest monthly gain since 2002. But as tech stocks rip higher, Kieran Moore says the real opportunity isn’t owning everything… it’s knowing what to avoid. In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Kieran Moore, Equity Partner & Portfolio Manager at Munro Partners, breaks down what’s really driving the explosive rebound in growth—and why he’s getting more selective, not less. He explains why AI demand is quietly surging beneath the surface, with usage (or “token demand”) tripling in just a few months, and how that’s creating massive winners—but also real disruption risk.
Apologies if I am sluggish this morning. Too much late night partying. Which as a mom in my almost 40s means I stayed up until 11pm learning how to play Mahjong. The Chinese game has swept North American mom groups by storm. The game is so complex we hired a teacher for our first session yesterday. I came so close to winning but was out Mahj’ed and had to put on my best runner-up smile and pretend to be happy for her.
Here are five things to know today:
Peace in a time of tweets: Stocks and gold are ripping higher and oil is plunging 7% on reports the US and Iran are close to ending their 10-week war. A one page memorandum of understanding has been drafted by Washington and would lead to the eventual re-opening of thEither way, these kind of extreme readings can’t last forever, so we would temper expectations for the semis over the next twelve months at this point.e Strait of Hormuz and the end of the US blockade. The news, originally reported by Axios, is being confirmed by multiple other outlets. China has reportedly entered the chat to apply pressure to end the war. “This could be it and the Strait fully reopens without fear and threat,” wrote Peter Boockvar of One Point BFG Wealth Partners, “Unfortunately though the IRGC will still be in power and we’ll see what they agree to with regards to their nuclear enrichment but the economic and political realities left us with no choice to end this as I think the Administration has been trying to do so since early April.” Semiconductors are also fueling the rally thanks earnings from AMD (more below) but let’s take a moment for the sector’s historic run. The group is trading 56% above its 200 day moving average – a feat that has only happened in 1995 and 2000. Semiconductor’s now make up 22% (!!) of the S&P 500 compared to just 6% before the release of ChatGPT,” said Bespoke Investment Group.
First the worst, second the best: AMD is soaring 15% to a fresh record high after blockbuster quarter and forecast. The runner-up to Nvidia is benefitting from hyperscalers wanting/needing alternatives. Sales in the quarter jumped 38% from last year while data centre growth was 57%. Lisa Su, the CEO of AMD, signalled that data centre server growth would be greater than 35% annually which is signicantly higher than the 18% growth projected just a few months ago by the company. “We would have thought server enthusiasm was already
priced in given the sharp move in the stock, but in the last few weeks there seems to be limitless enthusiasm,” wrote Joseph Moore of Morgan Stanley who is actually neutral on the stock. He worries that AMD can’t hack it against Nvidia longer-term and all the growth is already priced in. Other AI data centre related stocks are also rallying on earnings today include Astera Labs (+7%) and Super Micro (+13%). Astera Labs, which makes connectivity products for semiconductors, beat expectations and had a higher forecast than expected. Super Micro, which sells servers with Nvidia chips in them to data centre builders, managed to keep costs under control which is a relief to investors worried about promotional environments to sell in these servers.
Of all the days: Oil producers like Cenovus and Suncor are reporting results on an unfortunate day with energy prices plunging, their individual results are unlikely to win out the day. Cenovus is down 5% in the pre-market despite higher funds from operations than expected and record production thanks to the acquisition of Meg Energy. The bright spot was free cash flow which was significantly higher than expected. They also boosted their dividend 10%. Suncor is down nearly 3% despite better profit and lower spending plans. They are increasing their refinery capacity, so nudged down their utilization rate but total throughput remains the same. In all, companies that are doing well but investors don’t care because oil is down today.
House of mouse: Disney shares are popping 6% after quarterly results beat expectations for the first time under new CEO Josh D’Amaro. Disney’s strength in streaming and parks offset the fact there were fewer international travellers. The CFO said on the conference call that they haven’t seen a change in consumer behaviour because of higher gas prices. Overall visits to the US parks declined 1% because foreign travellers have been shunning the United States (for obvious reasons, tariffs, wars, Greenland, etc) but the business was still able to exceed expectations. In his inaguaral quarter as CEO, D’Amaro laid out his vision for returning Disney shareholders to the happiest on earth. He said he wants to focus on using new technology to increase monetization (perhaps the long rumoured one-stop shop Disney app), invest in intellectual property, and deepen relationships with consumers making things like Disney+ a “digital centrepiece”.
Price check: Watch Loblaw at the open after the grocer posted higher profit than expected and boosted its diviend 10%. While overall same-store sales were a slight miss, that was due to a drag from front store sales. Food and drug sales were well above expectations. The discount food banners like No Frills continue to outperform conventional Loblaw stores. “Overall, we believe the solid results show that Loblaw is navigating well through a challenging environment,” wrote Chris Li of Desjardins, “We believe higher and consistent (same-store sales growth) and EPS growth will continue to support its premium valuation.”
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