BRAND NEW EPISODE: DAVID ROSENBERG
Everyone calls David Rosenberg a permabear but he says he’s fully invested, just in completely different places than the consensus. On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Rosenberg breaks down why he’s still in the market despite sounding the alarm on what he sees as extreme valuations, bubble-like behaviour, and a dangerous level of investor complacency. From a “teflon market” that shrugs off every shock, to an equity market where investors are effectively paying to take risk, he explains why this cycle feels eerily similar to the late-90s tech mania.
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10 years ago today my husband was preparing to mount a white horse and follow a processional down to his blushing bride (if you’ve never been to an Indian wedding put it on the bucket list). Today we celebrate 10 years of marriage with three beautiful children, two house moves and four career changes between us. We have the life I dreamed we would when we first said “I do.” A milestone like this deserves a celebration – a romantic trip away! But thanks to busy schedules – year-end for the kids and endless graduations (from JK!) and recitals and both of us running our own start ups (who’s idea was that?) – the best I could do was send him a calendar invite for lunch today. Thankfully, he accepted.
Here are five things to know today:
Rocket fuel: Stocks are recovering this morning after the US ended strikes in Iran and hopes of a peace deal were revived. I don’t know how much longer I can keep writing about the same thing – but here we are. June has not been kind to equity investors with the S&P 500 down 4% and the NASDAQ down nearly 7%. The TSX has fared a little better this month but is still down 2%. The S&P 500 is now sitting at a one-month low as tech stocks underperform ahead of the big SpaceX IPO today. Expected to price at $135/share everyone will be watching to see if it can do better than that once it is released into the wild. Analysts who work at firms that weren’t on the deal have already started covering the stock – all with buy ratings so far. “SpaceX is the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing, and engineering talent,” wrote Timothy Horan of Oppenheimer. He has a buy and $190/share price target. He derived that number based on 2035 revenue and profit projections – a far out exercise I only see done with Elon Musk companies (reminds me of Tesla analyst reports 10 years ago). Over in Europe, the ECB raised rates as expected while warning inflation risks is skewed higher while growth is skewed lower. The market is pricing in more hikes.
Debbie downer: Oracle is plunging 10% after raising its spending forecast without raising its sales forecast leaving investors nervous about returns from the AI investments it is making. By all accounts, business is booming: AI cloud infrastructure grew 92% from last year and the value of its contracts stood at $638 billion – both metrics were better than expected. But the company also plans to spend $90 billion which is 100% of their revenue. To help close funding gaps the company plans to raise even more money through debt and equity totally $40 billion in 2027. Two years ago their long term debt was $82.5 billion, today it stands at $149 billion. While Oracle is plunging shares of companies that benefit from higher spending like Marvell (+5%), Intel (+5%), Lumentum (+2%) Lam Research (+4%) are all pumping pre-market.
Dollar store: Dollarama posted significantly stronger profit and sales growth than expected when it reported this morning. Same-store sales grew 5.6% which was better than the 3.7% expected. It’s also a sharp rebound from the 1.5% growth last quarter which sent the stock into freefall. The bottom line also got a boost from its international operations that are getting up and running in Australia and Latin America. However, margins were weighed down by the Australian business. The company maintained its 2027 forecast calling for 3-4% same-store sales growth which may be viewed as disappointing as it points to a slowdown from current levels.
Short seller crosshairs: Watch Abaxx Technologies at the open after short-seller Viceroy Research published a negative article calling the exchange “uninvestable.” Viceroy alleges the company’s trading volume is fake, the cash burn is high, and there are undisclosed related party transactions. Abaxx bills itself as an exchange focused on underserved markets like LNG, battery metals and gold – promising physical delivery. It also is working on this ID++ technology that would work on verifying collateral in real time. The latter part of the business is not generating revenue and is better thought of as an “other bets” business. Viceroy says this is part of business pivots rather than part of a coherent strategy. CEO Josh Crumb was on the podcast in March and he acknowledged the heavy shorting against his business: “About 40% of the volume last month came from net new net shorts. So there’s been a lot of pressure on the stock.”Abaxx is backed by some heavy hitters including Jeff Currie, the former Goldman commodity strategist, who is on the board and also a senior advisor to Carlyle Group. It was a top long idea from David Syzbunka of Canoe Financial as well.
Double upgrade: Intel is popping after Bank of America double upgraded the stock to Buy. Clearly offside on the stock with it up 190% so far in 2026. Better late than never I guess. The analyst thinks there will be better growth from CPUs (the brain of computers). He also says even with the rally the stock remains under owned. His price target is $135/share implying 20% upside from here. I own Intel.
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