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In a world of higher rates, stubborn inflation and expensive U.S. stocks, Canada just might be your safest bet. Ryan Bushell, CEO & Portfolio Manager at Newhaven Asset Management, invests in Canadian dividend-paying companies—and his portfolio is up 18% so far this year. He joins Amber to explain why he thinks Canada is well positioned in this environment, why infrastructure and energy remain at the heart of his portfolio, and why he sees little reason to chase the U.S. market at current valuations.
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FROM AMBER’S DESK
It’s picture day. Which means we hold our breath and pray the grooming we managed before the kids left the house survives long enough to snap one photo. I’ve decided even a bad photo is a rite of passage. One year we got a shot that captured not just my daughter in Grade 2, but the exact moment a mosquito landed on her forehead. No re-take offered. Honestly, I prefer it that way. A friend in Miami tells me her kids’ school now airbrushes the photos. Acne gone, braces erased. The coddling has gone too far, I say. That kind of low-grade trauma is what builds a personality. We all need our ugly years.
Here are five things to know today
1.
Stocks mixed as oil and AI guide the tape
Yesterday’s action looked like a random scatter plot: tech stocks soared in both the US and Canada, financials dipped in the US, the NASDAQ hit a record high while the S&P 500 was flat, and the TSX was up more than 1%. Meta’s traction with its AI agent Muse is lighting a fire under tech stocks (although Meta was actually down yesterday) while simultaneously pressuring financials and travel stocks. Goldman has dubbed this the “consumer inertia” basket – companies that benefit from making it difficult for customers to switch. You may not want to switch banks because you have to wait on hold for 3 hours, but now AI agents take the friction out of making the switch or price shopping. Shares of telecom companies were also weak as they fall into that bucket. That trade was less prevalent in Canada, although the financials did fall nearly 1% here too. US Financials slumped to the lowest level since July – so much for benefitting from rising rates.
Meanwhile, oil prices continue to fall. West Texas Intermediate is down nearly 5% this morning and in the red for a sixth session in a row on hopes of a breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz this week. US President Donald Trump said meetings were taking place with Iran even as his speech threatened to annihilate them. Art of diplomacy. Speaking of which, Prime Minister Mark Carney is up today at the UN General Assembly which will be a test of his ability to rebel against the US on their turf.
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2.
Tourmaline sells half of Topaz Energy stake
The embattled natural gas producer is taking matters into its own hands selling half its stake in Topaz Energy, increasing its base dividend 5% and buying back stock. Tourmaline will net just under $300 million from the sale which is being done as a bought deal. Tourmaline spun out Topaz Energy as a royalty play which IPO’ed in 2020. Topaz has since added other non-Tourmaline assets to its royalty structure. While the size of the proceeds isn’t terribly material to Tourmaline, it is symbolically important for a company that has traditionally stayed away from buybacks and preferred reinvesting in growth or rewarding shareholders through special dividends. ” TOU’s view is that the market remains overly focused on weak ’26-27 gas prices and is not appropriately valuing longer-term demand inflection. Management’s response: buy back stock while that disconnect exists,” wrote Aaron Bilkoski of TD.
Tourmaline was a Pro Pick from Ryan Bushell on the podcast yesterday. He bought it after Arc Resources was bought by Shell. His view is that Canada will become an important source of global natural gas supply and Tourmaline could benefit when prices turn. “We’re coming from such a low base that if the floor price on gas goes up 50 cents to a dollar, you’re going to want to own Tourmaline. It’s not there yet — but that’s the case I’d make,” he said on the show.
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” For a team that has historically preferred growth, special dividends and balance sheet strength over buybacks, the announcement may be more significant than the size of the transaction itself.” — aaron bilkoski, td (hold) |
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3.
Cineplex exploring sale, appoints new CEO
The movie theatre chain announced this morning it is exploring the potential sale of the company as it named the successor to long-time CEO Ellis Jacob. Cineplex named Bill Walker as CEO effective immediately. Walker was previously the CEO of Landmark Cinemas – the second largest theatre chain in Canada operated by a Belgian parent company. Cineplex has hired Goldman Sachs and TD to simultaneously conduct a review of options as “we believe the Company’s current market valuation may not fully reflect the strength of its business or long-term prospects.”
Shares of Cineplex haven’t gone anywhere for the last five years and are down 62% from pre-pandemic levels when the last deal to buy the company fell apart because of Covid. The sector was marred by a slow return of attendance to movies, but 2026 so far has been a blockbuster. Cineplex reported in August that receipts for the month reached an all-time high. We will see who steps up to the plate. The trouble is a lot of strategic buyers like other movie chains are saddled with pandemic-era debt perhaps making it a challenge for them to be able to do a deal – especially in a higher rate environment. Perhaps a private equity player is more likely. Stay tuned!
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4.
AGF Management misses
Shares could come under pressure after profit was 14% lighter than expected and sales were also lower. Outflows in its Canadian mutual fund business and lower revenue from its alternatives business drove the worse than expected quarter. On the flip side, the ETF business was strong with $179 million in inflows offsetting the $30 million outflows from Canadian mutual funds. Total assets under management increased 31% to $74.2 billion.
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5.
Quantum stocks rally on technology breakthrough
IonQ is surging 13% after it said it has developed a real-time decoding technology that fixes errors which can run on a single CPU. While quantum computing promises to handle complex workloads at high speeds, it is incredibly error prone. The ability to identify errors on the fly without the need for intense compute is a big breakthrough. Shares of other quantum stocks are also trading up.
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Quantum stocks pop in pre-market Rigetti Computing: +5.4% Xanadu Quantum Tech: +2% D-Wave: +5% |
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