SURVEY: Please take 30 seconds to fill out this survey about Hamilton ETFs. The survey helps us understand how effective our campaigns are so they can keep supporting the show!
In a world of higher rates, stubborn inflation and expensive U.S. stocks, Canada just might be your safest bet. Ryan Bushell, CEO & Portfolio Manager at Newhaven Asset Management, invests in Canadian dividend-paying companies—and his portfolio is up 18% so far this year. He joins Amber to explain why he thinks Canada is well positioned in this environment, why infrastructure and energy remain at the heart of his portfolio, and why he sees little reason to chase the U.S. market at current valuations.
Looking to invest in high-quality companies without high fees? The HAMILTON CHAMPIONS™ suite of ETFs offers exposure to diversified portfolios of equity champions across tech, financials, utilities, and dividend strategies, all with a low 0.19% management fee, designed to help you stay invested with confidence for the long term. For more information on the HAMILTON CHAMPIONS™ suite, visit: www.hamiltonetfs.com/hamilton-
FROM AMBER’S DESK
The homework is starting to roll in, and I’m now fairly sure my Grade 2 is being quietly taught permutations. It comes disguised as a harmless exercise about ice cream flavours but I can feel the moment coming, somewhere around the second scoop, when my usefulness as a homework helper officially taps out.
Here are five things to know today
1.
Stocks in the green
US stocks advanced for a third session in a row, while the NASDAQ hit a record high and the S&P 500 is less than 1% away. A combination of sliding oil prices and positive developments for Meta’s Muse AI agent supported the rally. Oil is down for a fifth session in a row on hope of a breakthrough between the US and Iran later this week. Meta rallied 11% yesterday after Muse AI hit #1 in Apple’s app store sparking a rally in chipmakers AMD and Intel. AMD became the latest $1 trillion market cap company. The revival of the AI trade also supported copper which hit a fresh record. The relief risk-on rally was apparent in Bitcoin prices which are poised to hit $86,000 – the highest since January.
However, when you look below the surface of this rally it is very shallow. While the market is near record highs, the number of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average is the lowest since March notes Peter Boockvar, CIO of One Point BFG Wealth Partners.
|
“I wish there were more people invited to this party. The excitement around the AI trade and now the potential of agents being our personal assistant I get but it comes with apathy towards most everything else. “ — peter boockvar, one point bfg wealth partners |
% of NYSE stocks trading above 200-day moving average
━━━━━━━━━━━━ ◆ ◆ ◆ ━━━━━━━━━━━━
2.
Potash stocks hit after Trump touts Belarus access
Nutrien fell more than 3% yesterday after Trump posted on social media “The United States is working on a massive Deal with respect to the purchase of Potash from Belarus. The pricing would be for substantially less than we are currently paying to Canada…” This morning the stock is about flat as investors think about the reality of Trump choosing a Russian ally over a Canadian neighbour.
According to many analysts this morning, the bark may be worse than the bite. Canada supplies about 80% of America’s potash demand, the price of getting potash from Belarus would be triple what it is from Canada (according to Ben Isaacson at Scotia), and lastly Belarus said they don’t have any potash available for the west (hours before Trump made his statement). “We see the drop in fertilizer equities after President Trump announced a potential US/Belarus deal (with no other details) as overdone – we do not see any significant material impact to potash producers (Nutrien, Mosaic) while nitrogen-related equities (CF Industries, LSB Industries), do not produce potash,” wrote RBC’s Andrew Wong.
|
“All of that potash has to be shipped first through Russia, then across the ocean, then across the US to mid-western farmers. Does anyone believe Belarusian blood potash shipped through Russia is going to be more affordable, more sustainable or more ethical than potash shipped from Saskatchewan – right here in North America?” — scott moe, premier, saskatchewan |
━━━━━━━━━━━━ ◆ ◆ ◆ ━━━━━━━━━━━━
3.
TC Energy says adios to Mexican pipeline
TC Energy is selling its 313 km LNG pipeline in Mexico for $560 million. The company says this is part of portfolio optimization and they will still have a presence in Mexico with over 3,000 km worth of pipelines. The deal may raise eyebrows as the multiple is quite low (7x EBITDA). However, profit has been declining at this particular route since 2022 notes Aaron MacNeil of TD Securities. “The ~7.0x headline multiple understates the valuation, in our view, given a declining EBITDA profile, while the sale reduces Mexico exposure and provides additional funding flexibility if capital spending increases,” he wrote. The sale comes as the stock has weakened against rising interest rates. While balance sheet and ability to fund itself isn’t a real concern, says MacNeil, “asset sales provide an additional funding source should capital spending increase from its current ~$6 billion annual cadence.”
━━━━━━━━━━━━ ◆ ◆ ◆ ━━━━━━━━━━━━
4.
Viking Therapeutics surges 32% on GLP-1 maintenance study
The biotech company is seen as a rival to Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk and in their most recent trial demonstrated that patients maintained their weight on their injectable version of GLP-1 even on a reduced dose. A common complaint of these drugs is that once you are off, the weight comes back on. In this trial, when patients dropped their dosing to every other week, 97% kept the weight off compared to 61% in the placebo. Meanwhile, 90% of patients who dropped to once a month dosing kept the weight off. Shares of Eli Lilly and Novo are down slightly in the pre-market. A short squeeze may be at play here, with 20% of Viking’s float sold short.. The next test will be whether the study can be replicated with the oral dose of GLP-1.
━━━━━━━━━━━━ ◆ ◆ ◆ ━━━━━━━━━━━━
5.
Eldorado Gold higher after double upgrade
Bank of America is upgrading the stock to buy from sell following a visit to its Greek mine. The large scale copper-gold Skouries is expected to begin commercial production later this year. “With Skouries largely de-risked, free cash flow (FCF) is set to inflect meaningfully higher in 2027E, and valuation is reasonable,” wrote Bank of America’s Andrew Lawson. The mine has been one of the most politically embattled around the world with activists, revoked permits, stop-and-start development, and legal challenges for the last 10 years. To see it finally come to production is a major milestone for the gold miner.
Eldorado Gold: NYSE
Don’t miss the next episode! Time to get your questions in! Click here to submit a question!
