More than 300 companies around the world cut their dividends in 2020—but not a single company in Fiona Wilson’s portfolio did. Fiona, who co-manages the i3 dividend fund portfolios within Guardian Capital LP, explains why chasing the highest dividend yield can be a costly mistake and why dividend growth is the key to building long-term wealth. She shares how her team uses artificial intelligence to forecast dividend growth, identify companies at risk of cutting their payouts, and uncover high-quality businesses that can compound for years.
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I’ll confess I dozed off during the final game of the World Cup. Thankfully I didn’t miss much with the score 0-0 before and after the nap. And given Spain ultimately won, I think they would forgive a little siesta.
Here are five things to know today:
Shake it off: Stocks are recovering following a tech-induced sell off. The NASDAQ fell nearly 3% last week after China’s Moonshot AI revealed an AI model that was just as effective as models from OpenAI and Anthropic – but cost much less. Moonshot AI says they plan to go public within the next 6 months. China has always represented a threat to US-based AI because of it can be done for cheaper it means the trillions being poured into AI right now might be unneccesary (generalizing but thats the crude calculus). It is a fear that gripped the semiconductors which fell 9% last week. I sold about 90% of my Micron and Intel two weeks ago. “Memory stocks are crowded, and with the unusual nature of this cycle periods of drawdowns seem inevitable – but we are buyers on that weakness,” wrote Morgan Stanley’s Joseph Moore in a note to clients this morning. “In a cycle entirely driven by data center, there are going to be mixed signals in consumer, PC, smartphone markets, which impact spot market and inventory levels at various points; we believe that some of the anecdotes dragging the stocks down in recent days have been about those parts of the market.” Moore argues you can’t look at prior cycles as a guide. “Our view continues to be that looking for sell signals from prior cycles misses the point. Memory is not just constrained by AI demand – memory is increasingly one of THE major primary constraints on AI demand, along with space and power.”
Deflated: Canadian inflation was better than feared in June with prices contracting more than expected month over month and increasing less than expected compared to last year. Consumer prices declined 0.4% compared to 0.2% decline expected from May to June – largely due to lower gas prices. When you strip out the effect of energy, inflation actually picked up to 1.8% from 1.6%. The data may be considered stale on arrival given oil prices have reared up again. CIBC’s Andrew Grantham says the bump up in inflation ex-food and energy could be related to FIFA World Cup price increases which are temporary. “Core measures of inflation…actually printed lower than expected in June to suggest that underlying price pressures remain quite muted. Because of that we continue to see the Bank of Canada holding its overnight rate steady for the remainder of this year,” he wrote.
Golden age of film: AMC Entertainment is surging 18% after swinging to a surprise adjusted profit in the quarter and said 2026 is going to be the strongest post-pandemic year. Revenue and attendance both increased by 14%. A slate of movies like “The Odyssey” (which brought in $125 million in its debut), Spider-Man: Brand New Day, and Dune: Part Three are all contributing to the enthusiasm that 2026 will be robust. Shares of IMAX are popping and Cineplex could get a lift this morning as well. The company was on the brink after the pandemic before becoming a meme-stock favourite – the stock is down 99% since the 2021 peak. So far in 2026 it is up 24% and total revenue is almost back to 2019 levels. The company has also been chipping away at its massive debt burden.
Chameleon: IREN is surging 9% after raising its annual recurring revenue target to over $4 billion from $3.7 billion. The crypto miner turned AI data centre said they have signed nearly $3 billion worth of new multi-year contracts that gives them the confidence to increase their forecast. Their customer base includes names like Microsoft, Nvidia, and Perplexity. The stock has been under pressure recently as the AI trade has faltered and IREN was one of the biggest beneficiaries (stock up 400% in the last 3 years).
Notable calls: BMO is transferring coverage of the Canadian grocers and changing their ratings in the process: Empire and Loblaw have been upgraded to buy and Metro has been downgraded to hold. BMO’s Tammy Chen says Empire has a lot of “low hanging fruit opportunities” to turn its operations around and expects good growth over the coming years. Loblaw should be a core holding given consistent earnings. Metro has been negatively impacted by Loblaw’s discount expansion into Quebec – more so than expected – which is why she is neutral on the stock. Unrelated to grocery, Chen is also downgrading AutoCanada to hold. She notes the company’s cost reductions were too aggressive and broad and it impaired the ability of dealerships to drive sales. Stifel is out with a note defending Gildan following a short report from Jehoshaphat Research on June 16th. The stock is down 13% since then and Stifel’s Martin Landry says the depressed valuation provides a good entry point heading into quarterly results on July 30th. “We believe this provides investors with an appealing entry point given the depressed valuation of 10x forward earnings, more than three turns lower than the 10-year average,” wrote Landry. Quarterly results will be the first time management has the opportunity to speak about the short report – which accused the company of stuffing the sales channel. Landry expects earnings to beat expectations and for forecast to provide clarity regarding the growth path following the Hanes acquisition.
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