On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Amber sits down with Hussein Allidina, Head of Commodities at TD Asset Management, for one of the most comprehensive conversations about commodities after an explosive 2025. Hussein argues that we’re still in the early stages of a multi-year commodity upcycle, driven by chronic underinvestment, rising global demand, and a world that needs far more energy, metals and power infrastructure than we’re currently capable of producing. He explains why commodities zig when everything else zags, how they deliver real inflation protection, and why a 5–10% allocation may be the most overlooked tool in modern portfolio construction.
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Time Horizon: 6–8 weeks (tactical trade)
- Hussein says a wave of speculative buying has pushed prices up on the assumption that the U.S. will ship ~20 million tonnes to China under trade deals, but he believes the actual volume will be far lower than the market is currently pricing.
- He points out that both U.S. and Chinese soybean balances are comfortable and that stocks-to-use ratios imply the current price is 8–10 % too high.
- After a 13 % rally from the August lows, he expects a quick reversal and would not be surprised to see a sub-$10 handle within the next six weeks.
2. Long Crude Oil
Time Horizon: 6–18 months
- Hussein is looking for a final washout into the low $50s or high $40s in the first half of 2026 (he wants to buy that dip), but then expects a strong recovery once the market starts pricing 2027–2028 balances that show much slower supply growth.
- He stresses that the long-run marginal cost of new oil supply is north of $70 and that recent large M&A deals prove how hard and expensive it is to grow production organically — prices will have to overshoot to force capital back into the ground.
- His base case is for oil to reach the high $70s to low $80s by late 2026 / early 2027.
3. Long Copper
Time Horizon: 5–7 years (strategic / structural)
- Hussein believes the world is shifting from liquid fuels to electricity and that, a decade from now, more primary energy will come from power than from oil and coal combined — moving all that power requires massive amounts of copper.
- He notes that almost no money has gone into the North American and European power grid for the past 20 years, creating a huge catch-up investment cycle.
- Copper inventories are already extremely tight globally and, because new mines take 10–15+ years to develop, he sees no meaningful new supply on the horizon — in his words, “that’s an issue.”
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DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated, human edited. The information provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
