Tech is starting to crack and value is outperforming. Where should you be positioned? On this special episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, the show heads to Phoenix, Arizona for a special on-the-road episode with Bill and Cole Smead of Smead Capital Management, the father-son investing team behind $5.5 billion in assets under management. In a wide-ranging and candid conversation, the duo explains why today’s market setup looks increasingly fragile and where disciplined value investors are still finding opportunity.
I returned home last night starving and travel weary. To my surprise, the kids were all in bed, the house was clean, and my mom made my favourite meal (naan and chicken curry) which was waiting for me in the kitchen. You’re never to too old to need your mom.
Here are five things to know
Wen moon: US futures are under pressure after a negative read of the labour market. US companies announced the biggest job cuts for any January since 2009 according to the latest Challenger report. Anything “since 2009” is usually bad news. Layoff notices soared 118% from last year, however half of this was driven by three companies: Amazon, UPS and Dow Inc. Since we won’t get labour numbers on Friday out of the US thanks to the four-day government shutdown, the market is placing extra emphasis on usually peripheral data. Oil and gold are also under pressure, so we could see a tough day ahead for the TSX as well. The risk off tone is also present in bitcoin which is plunging 7% right now below $70,000 and has lost 45% since the all-time high in fall. Today the Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem is speaking at 12:25 on “Forces Reshaping Canada’s Economy in 2026.” Earnings pick up on the TSX with 8 companies reporting today (including BCE and Barrick – more below) and 37 companies reporting on the S&P 500. Tonight we will get Amazon.
Search results: Google is falling nearly 4% in the pre-market as heavy spending outweighs a better than expected quarter. Alphabet unveiled plans to spend $175-$185 billion this year which was far above the $120 billion expected (but shouldn’t be a surprise if you read my weekly Globe column – just saying). This is overshadowing pretty stellar results. Revenue increased 18% which was higher than expected. Profit was also better. Importantly, Google Cloud re-accelerated to nearly 48% growth which is better than expected and better than peers. Google is also seeing strong uptake of its AI offering Gemini. The Gemini app now has 750 million monthly active users, up 100 million from the last quarter. “Given clear AI demand signals, we believe Google should be investing in product and in alleviating capacity challenges,” wrote Citi’s Ron Josey, “We reiterate our Buy rating and raise our target price to $390/share.”
Traumatic memory: Qualcomm is plunging 10% after the chipmaker posted a weaker forecast than expected. The supplier of chips to smartphones warned the supply shortage of memory chips and soaring prices are weighing on demand. Phonemakers can’t get their hands on the memory chips needed to complete a phone, so they make fewer phones, which means less demand for Qualcomm chips. Memory chip prices have also soared, meaning the phonemakers are feeling the pinch and that also weighs on demand for Qualcomm chips. Qualcomm is trying to diversify into AI, computers and cars, but handsets are still their bread and butter. The company got hit with three downgrades on the back of results: Bank of America, Morningstar and Susquehanna all threw in the towel on their buy rating.
Takes the gold: Barrick Mining is dipping slightly in the pre-market despite solidifying plans to spin out its North American gold assets in an IPO later this year. The gold miner also announced Mark Hill would become the permanent CEO after stepping in on an interim basis following the departure of Mark Bristow. Investors appear disappointed with the gold production forecast which implies a seventh year in a row of production declines. “Barrick is proceeding with its North American IPO, but provided no meaningful details aside from timelines by late 2026” wrote RBC’s Josh Wolfson who called the report “negative” in a note to clients. Barrick also revised its capital return strategy, now paying 50% of its free cash to dividends but did not renew the share buyback for 2026. “While we see results negatively, we expect a muted relative reaction, given prior underperformance into the release,” said Wolfson.
Hold the phone: BCE may come under pressure after sales missed expectations, it’s forecast for 2026 came in slightly below, and results from Ziply missing on the top and bottom line. On the bright side, it added more wireless postpaid subscribers than expected. “With BCE’s share price outperformance YTD (+10%, vs S&P/TSX +3%, T +8% and RCI -2%), and our expectation that some time will be spent on the call on the increased competition, we expect slight underperformance today,” wrote Jerome Dubreuil of Desjardins, “However, with the company entering a more predictable chapter of its story, a reasonable valuation, and investors’ growing focus on tangible assets (which BCE has), we remain relatively constructive on BCE.”
Submit your questions NOW for value investor Jonathan Wellum. He used to manage money for billionaire Michael Lee-Chin before striking out on his own. Email us at questions@inthemoneypod.com
