Futures higher, a contrarian market, Intel pops, Cargojet beats, Scotia downgraded
Congratulations to all those who survived Snowmageddon over the long weekend. I must have burned 4000 calories alone putting on snow gear for three children 700 times a day. But we made the most of it: took the kids skiing, shoveled the driveway, took the kids sledding, shoveled the driveway, built a fort, shoveled the driveway. Looking forward to this week, nursing new back pains while…shoveling the driveway.
Hiding out in traditional dividend paying sectors like telecoms, real estate and utilities has been a recipe for underperformance over the last several years. But in a brand new episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar we talk about where to find dividend growers for investors looking for both growth and income. We spoke with Evan Mancer of Cardinal Capital Management, where he manages $5 billion in assets, about where he is finding the best opportunities and his recent foray into activist investing. You can listen on Apple, Spotify, or here.
Today’s newsletter is brought to you by BMO. We all want to make the most of our investments. That’s why BMO InvestorLine is here. Their easy-to-use platform, packed with tools, resources, and commission-free trading on over 100 popular ETFs, can help you trade with confidence and take control of your financial future. Learn more here.
Head(line) fake: If I could sum up the markets so far in 2025 it would be: the worse the headline, the better the performance. Tariffs ushering in a new world order and possible Great Depression? Canadian and US markets are spitting distance from all-time highs. China in the midst of a slowdown and on America’s bad side? The Hong Kong markets are one of the best performing in the world so far this year (+14.5% in 2025). This doesn’t just apply to broad markets. The top performers are a who’s who of negative headlines. Palantir is one of the least loved AI stocks on the planet with just 5 buy ratings compared to 13 holds and 6 sells. It is also the best performing stock on the S&P 500 so far this year (+58%). Super Micro is at risk of being de-listed from the NASDAQ, was accused of fraud by a short-seller, and didn’t file its financial results on time. It’s the second best performing stock of 2025 (+57%). CVS dropped 40% last year to a 12-year low and ousted its CEO. It’s the third best performing stock (+47%). Amongst the chip stocks, Intel has been trailing in last place for a while but it’s the best performing semiconductor over the past month (more on that below). This worst-is-first mentality is showing up in Canada. BlackBerry is the best performing stock on the TSX (+47%). Headline after headline highlighted TD’s anti-money laundering woes. It is the best performing bank stock. While each of these stories are idiosyncratic, they are all part of the same trend. The markets are incredibly resilient despite headlines that tell us otherwise. Why? Part of it is that investors are looking through tariffs and focusing on other facets of the Trump administration like tax cuts and deregulation, says Evan Mancer of Cardinal Capital Management on the podcast. He says this is the consensus trade right now. What about elevated inflation in the US? Bank of America says its a “blessing-in-disguise” for stocks and bonds. “Rising inflation means Trump must go ‘small’ not ‘big’ on tariffs & immigration in coming months to avoid fanning 2nd wave of inflation,” wrote Michael Hartnett of Bank of America in a note on Friday. This works well enough for me. While I stopped dating garbage in my late 20s (when I met my husband), I still keep a fair bit of it in my portfolio (I own Intel, CVS and just exited BlackBerry).
CPI oh my: Inflation in Canada reaccelerated to 1.9% in January on a headline basis while core measures came in above expectations (+2.7% vs the 2.5%). Higher energy prices lifted inflation while prices dropped at restaurants and for alcohol and toys thanks to the GST tax holiday which expired last week. This is the first time headline inflation has reaccelerated in three months. Today’s number will not solve the debate on whether the Bank of Canada will cut rates at its next meeting on March 12. Right now the market is pricing in only a 30% chance of another rate cut.
Parts > sum: Shares of Intel are popping 5% on reports that Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor are interested in bidding for different parts of the business in a deal that would see the chipmaker split apart and sold in pieces. Broadcom is reportedly exploring purchasing the chip design and marketing business in what is described as very preliminary internal discussions according to the Wall Street Journal. Nothing formal has been submitted to Intel. Taiwan Semi, meanwhile, is reportedly looking at a controlling stake in Intel’s factories according to a report from Bloomberg. Shoutout to Mark Sebastian of OptionPit.com who said he was taking a flyer on Intel when he appeared on the podcast at the end of January. Since then the stock is up 23%. You can watch the full episode here with the Intel conversation around the 15 minute mark.
Fly: Watch shares of Cargojet at the open after it grew sales and profit more than expected. Shares of the air cargo company have been dead money for the last year (so, of course, I own this one) but the company’s results demonstrate they are still growing despite a difficult shipping environment. Total sales grew 32% boosted by its charter business. However, the domestic market was weaker likely due to the impact of the Canada Post strike. In addition, margins fell more than expected, but the company says that was due to one-time start-up costs. “While overall results exceeded our expectations,” wrote ATB’s Chris Murray, “The revenue beat primarily came from a lower quality source with margins remaining below historical levels.” He doesn’t recommend stepping in here. Investors will be looking for more colour around how the company may be impacted by tariffs and potentially lower global trade.
Scotia downgraded: CIBC is downgrading Bank of Nova Scotia ahead of bank earnings which kick off next week. The downgrade comes just 6 months after CIBC’s Paul Holden upgraded the stock to buy. “We generally prefer not to change ratings this quickly (upgraded September 2024), but the macro environment has changed significantly,” he warned in a note to clients. In particular, he is worried that Scotia would be more significantly affected by tariffs than peers given its exposure in Mexico. “We could return to a more positive call if Mexico and Canada are able to negotiate relatively harmless tariffs. Until that happens, we think it will be hard for the stock to be a relative outperformer.” Indeed, it is the worst performing bank stock so far in 2025.
