In the Money: 5 Things to Know

Markets stress about debt, TD beats, retail stocks pop, Snowflake surges, Lightspeed beats

From a work trip last week to a girls trip this week. I don’t know how I managed that, and luckily, neither does my husband. We are in town to a see a concert which we only learned is outdoors when we landed. The forecast calls for 100% chance of rain. Currently looking for bedazzled ponchos within a 5km radius after spending yesterday afternoon in the shopping district parsing through the spring collections looking for winter coats. Anticipating a late night tonight, there will be no newsletter tomorrow morning. I will be back with you on Monday!

In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, we explore the often-overlooked world of small cap investing with David Barr, CEO of PenderFund. A seasoned investor since 2009, David explains why he remains committed to the space despite its volatility—and why it could be a hidden opportunity for patient investors. You can listen on Apple, Spotify or here.

Roost: Futures are selling off this morning after the US passed Trump’s “big, beautiful” budget bill. It is doing little to quell anxieties in the bond market. For years people have said government borrowing and deficits are on an unsustainable path, but it appears 2025 is the year that is coming home to roost. After an all night vote, the US narrowly passed the budget bill in the House that would increase federal deficits by $4 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office. This is largely through tax cuts. To offset the lower revenue from taxes, the budget cuts spending by $1 trillion on the back of reduced eligibility for Medicaid and food stamps. Plainly, it’s a budget that benefits the highest income earners while limiting resources for the lowest income earners. It also pares back spending on Biden-era green energy incentives. Shares of Sunrun (-44%), Enphase (-20%), and Canadian Solar (-8.5%) are getting hammered. The bigger problem for the markets, is the size of the deficit. We have been seeing those concerns in the bond market although this morning the sell-off is calming down. Still, the yield on a US 10-year spiked to 4.6% – the highest since February, while 30-year debt has edged past the 2023 high to reach the highest level since 2007. Put simply, investors are charging more for buying US debt because of concerns about the government’s ability to pay going forward. This is not just a US problem, we are seeing similar tantrums in Japan right now. But Goldman Sachs’ trading desk is warning that the high bond yields are reaching a problematic level for equities. Indeed, US markets sold off yesterday because there was tepid demand for 20-year debt auction. “The strength and credibility of the US Treasury market is the real foundation of the US exceptionalism narrative” wrote Ipek Ozkardeskaya of Swissquote, “It’s not Apple or Nvidia. It’s the fact that the US has been able to fund its economy and respond to crises through this unparalleled debt market. That’s what’s made the US so globally dominant. And that special status is something investors gave—and something they could take away.” Bitcoin is showing its might in this environment, reaching a record high while gold is also advancing this morning. Fitting that Bitcoin hits a record high on “Bitcoin Pizza Day.” On this day 15 years ago, Laszlo Hanyecz bought two large pizzas in the first real-world purchase using bitcoin. He used 10,000 BTC, which at today’s prices is the equivalent of buying them for $1.1 billion. Oil (-1.5%) will be a pressure point today after OPEC+ signaled they are willing to increase supply yet again in July.

Arm chair expert: TD has kicked off Canadian bank earning season with an earnings beat driven by lower than expected provisions for loans that could go sour. “…With lower than forecast provisions helping with the beat, we question whether the market will see the allowance build as sufficient,” wrote John Aiken of Jefferies. Positives in the quarter include the earnings beat, lower impaired loan formations from last quarter, no new blow up from anti-money laundering concerns, its capital buffer increased thanks to the sale of Schwab, and the bank was active in buying back its stock. A knock on the quarter could be Canadian banking, according to Doug Young at Desjardins. “Canadian P&C banking adjusted pre-tax pre-provision earnings were ~3% below our estimate and consensus,” wrote Young. Shares of TD are slightly higher in the pre-market and the stock is the best performing bank stock in 2025 (living up to the old saying “worst will be first” which is the idea that last year’s underperformer will be this year’s outperformer).

Retail therapy: Shares of Urban Outfitters are soaring 16% to a record high after sales grew more than expected. Investors are also taking comfort in gross margins which showed healthy expansion and the company signaled they will continue to expand. “…Barring a slip-up or potential macro pressure emerging later in the year, tonight represents a strongly positive signal for URBN’s path upward,” wrote BMO’s Simeon Siegel. Ralph Lauren is popping in the pre-market (+2%), though just shy of an all-time high, after the retailer beat profit expectations and boosted its dividend more than anticipated. The company is warning of a sales slowdown amid tariffs, but still seeing growth and investors appear to be betting the forecast is conservative. Nike is higher this morning after announcing it will start selling goods on Amazon again for the first time since 2019.

Every one is different: Shares of Snowflake are bucking the soft tape this morning surging 9% in the pre-market after saying product sales are poised to increase 25% due to AI demand. The database architecture company said it hasn’t seen much of an impact from tariffs and boosted its sales forecast for the year. “…We believe the bump to full year revenue despite the macro backdrop management’s confidence in the durability of near-term demand,” wrote Evercore’s Kirk Materne. “Bottom line: We believe that the combination of revenue stabilization in the mid-20%s alongside some operating leverage can help drive further multiple expansion,” he wrote.

Slow speed: I don’t see a pre-market quote yet on Lightspeed, so I’ll watch that at the open after the embattled point-of-sale software provider reported better sales than expected while profit came in-line. Total sales increased 18% for 2025 and the company says they expect growth to slow to 10-12% for 2026. However, analysts were already expecting this. The company is in the midst of a “full transformation plan” which have it focusing on growth in North American retail, hospitality in international markets, and profitable growth. “Margin improvements and a relatively positive revenue outlook are encouraging,” wrote ATB’s Martin Toner.

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