Since January In the Money with Amber Kanwar has been consistently churning out two episodes per week. No breaks. Never missing our deadline, which is entirely credited to my amazing team under Jillian Glickman. As August approaches, we are excited to launch our CEO Summer Series. Interviews once a week with top Canadian executives. We will return to our stock-picking and money manager interviews in September with a HUGE lineup (stay tuned). I will also be taking a brief break for August from the daily newsletter to spend mornings with the kids (which should give us great material for my September missives). Our first CEO interview next week will be with Kevin Strain, CEO of Sun Life Financial!
NEW EPISODE: In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, investor Seth Allen of Cadence Financial explains why he thinks about stocks the same way you might think about real estate—some are worth owning for the long haul, others you just rent for the upside. He breaks down his approach to navigating markets at record highs and how to spot which stocks are “forever homes” and which ones are just short-term leases. You can tune in on Apple, Spotify or here.
Hot streak: Stocks are in the green this morning ahead of a mega cap tech earnings and an interest rate decision tomorrow by the Federal Reserve (and the Bank of Canada). It is not a clean sweep for earnings as there are a number of big stocks under pressure. There are signs of strain in a lot of the pre-market movers this morning. Whirlpool (-17%) is cutting its 2025 outlook. Stellantis (-4%) increased its tariff forecast while offering a vague financial forecast. Royal Caribbean (-6%) is taking down the cruise sector this morning after its profit forecast came in lower on higher costs. PayPal (-3%) is down on slower payment volume. UPS (-3%) is pulling its financial forecast altogether on economic uncertainty. But several Magnificent 7 stocks (Nivida +1.3%) are up in the pre-market and that appears enough to offset some of these weaker earnings report.
Cough twice: Healthcare stocks are a disaster this morning. UnitedHealth is down 3% after issuing its third profit warning this year. This puts the insurance giant on track for its first drop in profit in 20 years. UnitedHealth miscalculated medical expenses this year and won’t be able to adjust policy rates until next year. The company said on the call that it sees $6.5 billion more in medical costs than before. But that is only one headache for the insurer as it also deals with DOJ probes into its Medicare practices and warned today that Affordable Care Act membership is expected to decline significantly. For now this value stock is proving to be more of a value trap. Interestingly UnitedHealth said weightloss drugs like Ozempic are expected to reduce overall pharmacy sales by $160 million. This comes as Novo Nordisk (maker of Ozempic) shocked investors by cutting its sales and profit forecast. Apparently this wonder drug that is poised for explosive growth is…slowing. Sales are expected to grow just 8-14% compared to its previous growth forecast of 21-24%. Novo Nordisk is down a whopping 20% in the pre-market while rival Eli Lilly is -3% in sympathy. Shares of Merck are down 4% and adding to pharmas woes this morning. The drug maker is extending its pause on sales into China for its key HPV drug at the same time it braces for off-brand competition for a key cancer drug. The company unveiled $3 billion in cost cutting which is being read by investors as a company worried about profit growth in the future.
Celestial: Shares of Celestica are soaring 9% in the pre-market after smashing earnings expectations and projecting a much better than expected profit forecast. Revenue jumped 20% from last year and the forecast calls for 15-25% growth in the future. Celestica provides back-end technology to enable AI. The stock is up nearly 250% over the past year alone. While some may quibble with the valuation (34x earnings) and customer concentration (one customer makes up 30% of sales), results like this show they are delivering. RBC points out this is the biggest sales beat in the last two years.
Honk of you love turnarounds: I’ll be curious to see how investors greet TFI results. One one hand, the trucking company’s profit came in well above depressed expectations. But rather than suggest the good times will continue, the company offered a tempered outlook for the upcoming quarter. Is this just conservatism? “We believe management is being overly cautious,” wrote Desjardin’s Benoit Poirier. “We now see TFII as the top transportation pick in our coverage. With Canadian rails losing momentum and facing strategic uncertainty amid US mergers, funds should flow to alternatives. The large-cap Canadian transport space offers few viable alternatives, making TFII a standout with its consolidation potential, unique self-help catalysts and attractive valuation.” The stock plunged earlier this year after slashing its profit forecast and plans to re-domicile in the US caused intense backlash.
Buckle up: Watch shares of Air Canada at the open after profit missed expectations. Higher fuel and labour costs drove the profit miss. However, revenue was higher than expected and this may allay concerns about travel demand. “Looking ahead, with advanced ticket sales of $5.45b at the end of Q2/25 being ~2% ahead of our forecast coming into the print, we continue to see strength in bookings into H2/25,” wrote BMO’s Fadi Chamoun.
