We took the greatest podcast on Earth to the greatest show on Earth last week. In the Money with Amber Kanwar was at the Calgary Stampede in our very first live taping. We spoke with Adam Waterous of the Waterous Energy Fund and Executive Chair of Strathcona which is currently in hot pursuit of MEG Energy. We talked about it all and he revealed that if he didn’t get MEG Energy, Strathcona would do a $10/share special dividend. This caught the eye of investors (if not any other media organization) and Strathcona rallied 9% after our interview aired. Proving if you aren’t in the money, you are in the dark!
Dumps: US futures are under pressure as more tariff threats were unleashed. After threatening 35% tariff on Canadian goods, the US sent letters to the EU warning of a 30% tariff. None of this is set in stone, but after a big recovery in US stocks it is enough to prompt a pause. Keep in mind, the pullback is from record highs that are still very much intact. But, valuations are once again a concern and breadth is starting to stall out. Earnings season kicks off this week with US banks reporting tomorrow morning and a read of inflation on both sides of the border. Both could be the deciding factor on how the rest of the month unfold.
Too Fastenal, Too Furious: Shares of Fastenal are popping 3% after sales rose more than expected. Credit to Frances Horodelski who made me care about this bellwether – if ever there was a company that tells you about industrial America it is the maker of industrial and construction supplies. Analysts were cautious that Fastenal would have to resort to discounting in order to drive sales, but margins actually came in higher than expected and increased from last year. Tariffs are a wildcard here. “Customer sentiment remains favorable, but management noted that the rapidly changing tariff environment continues to cause concern,” wrote KeyBanc’s Ken Newman. The conference call at 10am this morning could give us more insight into how they are thinking about tariff risks.
Air India update: Boeing and GE Aerospace are trading up after a preliminary report of the Air India crash last month said there was no evidence to suggest it caused by manufacturer defect. India’s aircraft investigation unit said there is no action required by either Boeing or GE. Bernstein’s analyst Douglas Harned called the update “positive” for Boeing and increased his price target to $282/share.
Crypto week: Crypto exposed stocks are trading higher on what is expected to be a catalyst heavy week for the industry. Stocks like Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Robinhood, and Circle are all up in the pre-market as politicians in the US are considering three key pieces of legislation that would support US President Donald Trump’s call to make the country the crypto capital of the world. It helps that Bitcoin is also trading near record highs after hitting $120,000 for the first time early this morning.
New bull: Shopify is getting a new buy rating from an analyst at Needham. The company is just in the middle of its growth cycle according to the analyst Scott Berg. He also says that the budget that was just passed by the US which includes tax cuts should support the consumer going forward which will be good for Shopify’s gross merchandise value (the dollar value of goods processed on Shopify’s platform). He’s got close to a street high price target of $135/share (US) which implies 20% upside from here.
