BRAND NEW EPISODE: DIVIDEND GROWERS
More than 300 companies around the world cut their dividends in 2020—but not a single company in Fiona Wilson’s portfolio did. Fiona, who co-manages the i3 dividend fund portfolios within Guardian Capital LP, explains why chasing the highest dividend yield can be a costly mistake and why dividend growth is the key to building long-term wealth. She shares how her team uses artificial intelligence to forecast dividend growth, identify companies at risk of cutting their payouts, and uncover high-quality businesses that can compound for years.
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This week all the children are at one camp – it’s the purest logistical joy this family has ever known.
Reckoning: Stocks are under pressure once again with tech stocks continuing to sell-off as China unveiled a new AI model as good as the one’s put forth by OpenAi and Anthropic – but at a cheaper price. Moonshot AI – a Chinese startup founded in 2023 – revealed that its Kimi K3 Model was as powerful as Claude’s Fable 5 and Chat GPT’s 5.6 Sol. This coupled with news that Alphabet is delaying the release of its latest iteration of Gemini is roiling tech stocks, with semiconductors particularly hard hit. Google fell 4% yesterday on the news, semiconductors are plunging in the pre-market (SOXX ETF -3%), while Asian markets plunged (Japan’s Nikkei -4% as Softbank dropped 9% which is a big backer of OpenAI, South Korea’s KOSPI -6%). “I’ll say for the umpteenth time, US tech faces a competitor in the Chinese that they never really faced before outside of the Japanese in the 1980’s,” said Peter Boockvar of the Boock Report, “And again, Chinese companies first focus on market share rather than profits and your margin is their opportunity.” Next week the earnings dial gets turned up with Google, Tesla, and Intel all set to report.
No chill: Netflix is tanking 11% and poised to open at a 2-year low after warning sales growth will be lower than expected. The biggest competitive threat for Netflix isn’t other streamers – but other options as people opt for doomscrolling and binging short-form video over settling in for a movie or their latest TV series. You can see this in their engagement trends: total viewing hours is only up 2% in the first half of 2026 compared to 2025. Naturally since it is a bad number, they are going to stop reporting it as often. “The move of releasing the What We Watch report only once a year starting in 2027 (instead of twice a year now) will be seen as an incremental negative, cutting disclosure at the time when it is being focused on most,” wrote Andrew Marok of Raymond James who is neutral on the stock. Sales missed expectations this quarter and the forecast for next quarter implies just 12.5% growth – which is the slowest since Q1 2025. It explains why Netflix was so thirsty to do a deal with Warner Brothers – they need a catalyst. Evercore’s Mark Mahaney is a little more upbeat about owning the shares for the long term. “This is a sustainable 20% EPS grower based on the following algorithm – low-double-digit revenue growth, solid operating margin expansion, and share repos. At a multi-year low 18X P/E on ’27, valuation is highly reasonable, with the potential for a material re-rating to 25X, which is what our $100 PT is based upon,” said Mahaney. I own shares.
Stitches: Intuitive Surgical is plunging 10% on disappointment the company didn’t increase their sales forecast even as results beat expectations this quarter. The maker of robotic surgical equipment says procedure growth will be around 13.5-14.5% which was similar to their previous view and implies a deceleration of growth in the second half of the year. The stock has been in the penalty box – down 30% so far in 2026 in part because changes to the US insurance system meant fewer people were insured and thus deferring surgeries. RBC calls this headwind “transitory” noting that growth this quarter was robust with sales up 19% this year and profit increasing 28%. “We believe the procedure narrative will drive a mixed near-term stock reaction (stock down post-market), but headwinds are temporary and not
reflective of a change in underlying demand or competitive displacement,” wrote RBC’s Shagun Singh, “Thus, in our view…we believe ISRG will remain the clear choice for surgeons and patients as procedures return.”
Failure to launch: SpaceX is falling 4% to a new post-IPO low after delaying its first launch as a public company. SpaceX aborted its latest Starship launch due to an engine failure. It would have been the program’s 13th test flight and a step toward SpaceX’s goal of a fully reusable rocket. Setbacks like this are routine in rocket development. But this one lands at a tense moment for shareholders, with the stock now trading below its IPO price after a record $86 billion debut. The stakes are high: Starship is central to NASA’s plan to return astronauts to the Moon, serving as the vehicle to refuel and land them there. SpaceX holds a roughly $4 billion NASA contract to put astronauts on the lunar surface by 2028.
Notable call: Apple was upgraded to buy at HSBC on its ability to capture AI without shelling out on capital expenditures. Apple has largely sat out the capex parade when it comes to building out AI – but HSBC argues it will still benefit leveraging its 2.5 billion installed base as Apple Intelligence comes out. Shares are trading at record highs but price target implies about 10% upside from here. Hardware remains a key driver, writes the analyst, and a new foldable iPhone in September could drive a refresh cycle. I own Apple.
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