The AI boom is supposed to be a tech story. Larry McDonald thinks it’s a commodities story. On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, the Bear Traps Report founder and best-selling author explains why surging demand for copper, uranium, oil, natural gas and gold could create some of the biggest investment opportunities of the next decade.
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PAST PICKS REPORT CARD Picks from September 9, 2025 | Period: Sept 9, 2025 – June 17, 2026
Short Nvidia (NVDA) — ❌ -20.0% (trade was short; NVDA returned +21.87% over the period, making this a losing short)
First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) — ✅ +21.46% total return
Coal (COAL) — ✅ +27.34% total return
THIS EPISODE’S PRO PICKS
AEM — Agnico Eagle Mines The highest-quality gold miner in the world, buying back $2B in stock while the sector sells off
- Stock is down 40% from its highs while the broader market sits near all-time highs. Generating $6–7 billion in annual free cash flow — and using it to buy back stock, not dilute shareholders. Larry calls it the opposite of the junior miner problem.
- Management team is exceptional by any measure in global mining — the CEO has seven lieutenants Larry describes as equally sharp. This isn’t a one-man show. David Einhorn flagged it specifically as a free cash flow compounder, which is his highest endorsement.
- Gold is down from $5,300 to $4,200 — Larry’s view is that this is the tourist flush, not a structural break. Central banks around the world are still buying. Currency debasement is still happening. His 18-month price target on gold: $6,500.
- One gold miner in the entire S&P 500. One. Newmont. As institutional capital eventually rotates from 50% tech toward hard assets — Larry sees that going to 30% tech over 5–7 years — the reweighting alone is a structural tailwind for names like AEM.
ISRG — Intuitive Surgical The Google of surgical data — the best AI moat nobody is talking about
- Trading near a 52-week low after missing a few quarters. Larry’s thesis isn’t about the quarter — it’s about the decade. Intuitive Surgical owns the most valuable surgical data set on earth. That data is what robotic surgery AI gets trained on.
- The smart money theme Larry keeps hearing at his ideas dinners: own companies with priceless, proprietary data. Not chips. Not models. The data. Intuitive Surgical is that company in healthcare.
- Healthcare has gone from 17% of the S&P 500 to 8%. It’s being crowded out by AI IPOs. That’s a setup, not a thesis breaker.
- Not cheap on traditional metrics — but on a 10-year free cash flow basis with robotic surgery scaling globally, Larry argues the valuation looks different. Billionaire family offices in his network have been building positions quietly.
SLB — SLB (Schlumberger) The AI play hiding in plain sight on the ocean floor
- Up nearly 40% in 2026 while the Nasdaq is up 13% — and barely flinched during oil’s 30% retreat from the April peak. That price action tells you something. This isn’t an oil price bet. It’s a data and intelligence bet.
- SLB owns the most comprehensive data set on global oil reservoirs, offshore drilling patterns, and subsurface geology. Larry calls it “the Google of oil services.” AI will make that data exponentially more valuable — the same way AI made search advertising exponentially more valuable for Google.
- 41 trillion in the Nasdaq 100. Less than 3 trillion in oil and gas stocks combined. The slightest rotation out of tech and into energy creates outsized moves in names like SLB.
- Trump administration is going all-in on offshore drilling and Venezuelan production recovery over the next two years. SLB is the picks-and-shovels play on both.
- Trading near its 200-week moving average — a level Larry associates with the beginning of bull markets, not the end.
Bonus: Larry’s uranium call — he’s lightened up on Cameco (CCO) and NexGen (NXE) due to production timeline embellishment and supply delays, and rotated into physical uranium via SRUF (U.UN on the TSX for Canadian investors). Downside 20-25%, upside 200-300% in his words. “Same story as copper — demand is real, supply has been suppressed by regulation and environmental rules, and the gap is not closing fast enough.”
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DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated and should be checked against actual delivery. The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
