Stocks are at record highs — so why does it still feel like everyone’s on edge? Amber Kanwar sits down with Craig White, Senior Wealth Advisor and Portfolio Manager at Plena Wealth which is part of Raymond James, to unpack what he calls “the most unloved bull market ever.” They dig into how to stay invested when anxiety is high, why sentiment and fundamentals are clashing, and how his core vs. explore framework helps take the emotion out of investing. Listen on Apple, Spotify or YouTube!
My husband has been wearing the same Jose Bautista bat flip shirt for the last 10 years, aka the last great moment for the Blue Jays. Aside from the team, no one deserves to see the Jays go to the World Series than him. And no one deserves to look at a different shirt than me.
Here are five things to know today:
Hype: Futures are mixed after the best two-day run for the S&P 500 since June. Gold is falling 2% and that could weigh on the TSX. Aside from AI bubble chatter, gold bubble chatter is also heating up. With gold surging 60% so far in 2025 absent a recession, there are concerns it has run too far. China has been the main buyer of gold as a safety net for tensions with the US. The upcoming talks between the US and China could be an important catalyst. Will a trade deal mean there is less need for the safety net? Today the focus will be on earnings with 25 companies reporting on the S&P 500, including Netflix after the bell. Just one company reports on the TSX: Waste Connections after the bell. Overnight, the Nikkei advanced to a record as history was made. It was touch and go for a few weeks, but Japan has its first female prime minister and its first female finance minister. That’s not why the stock market rallied, but because of the expectation of a surge in fiscal stimulus. By the way, the US government is still shutdown. Day 21.
CP-oh-my: Canadian prices rose at the fastest pace since February climbing 2.4% in September compared to last year. This is above the 2.2% expected and the 1.9% increase in August. Meanwhile, core inflation also came in hotter at 3.2%. The figures paint the Bank of Canada in a corner especially considering their own business outlook survey yesterday suggested businesses are not optimistic about the prospect of sales growth and most consumers expect a recession in the next 12 months. That would typically call for easier monetary policy, but high inflation could stand in the way. CIBC says the Bank of Canada can still find a way to ease rates this month despite the print. “The Bank has downplayed its previous preferred measures of core inflation recently… instead using a wider range of indicators as well as measures of dispersion,” wrote CIBC’s Andrew Grantham. “…Measures of core inflation were likely subdued enough for the Bank of Canada to still reduce interest rates by a further 25bp next week, particularly given evidence of a sluggish recovery in GDP and weak business sentiment,” said Grantham.
Shifting gears: General Motors is soaring nearly 12% after beating expectations and raising its forecast on the back of strong demand for its pickup trucks. The automaker thanked US President Donald Trump for extending a tariff discount to some suppliers and reduced the tariff impact they see going forward by $500 million. Profit and sales may have beat expectations, but make no mistake, both were lower than last year as the company has had to stop, drop, and, roll to deal with the firehose of policies coming out of the White House from changes of EV credits to tariffs. Offsetting this is strong demand for its Silverado truck and its Escalade which are enjoying their best sales in years.
Every vote counts: MEG Energy has delayed its vote again on Cenovus’s offer to buy the energy producer as it has come up short on the threshold needed to close the deal. The vote has been moved from October 22nd to October 30th. Despite the fact that Strathcona Resources ended its hostile bid, MEG says it only has 63% of votes in favour of the transaction, short of the 66 2/3% needed to cross the finish line. The extension is meant to give shareholders more time to vote for the deal. While Strathcona withdrew its bid, they still own about 14% of the company and likely voted against the deal. Cenovus was forced to up its offer in order to get to this point and with the current offer valuing MEG at $29.52/share. Cenovus has also been buying shares and voting them in favour of the MEG deal, a move that raised eyebrows among investors. Shareholder Cole Smead of Smead Capital filed a complaint with the Alberta Securities Commission saying MEG circumvented a fair and competitive process. Watch the stock at the open, if it drops below the offer price this could make things interesting.
Notable call: Intact is being upgraded at Jefferies after a nearly 20% sell-off in the stock. “(Intact’s) shares are down 16% since it reported its (arguably strong) second quarter as slower premium growth appears to be priced in,” wrote Jefferies’ John Aiken, “We believe that the pullback in its valuation now makes it quite compelling, and we are upgrading Intact to a BUY.” Craig White of Plena Wealth named Intact as one of his best ideas on the podcast out this morning. “It’s pretty tough to bet against the company itself. I would be an accumulator of the stock at these prices, and we’ll probably look at doing that within our portfolios as well,” said White.
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