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MEG shareholders vote, Aritzia earnings, Canadian jobs…everything you need to know about the week ahead in my weekly Globe & Mail column.
Here are five things to know this morning:
Schrodinger’s cat: Futures are popping as tech leads the way again and gold hits another record. Gold is just $70/oz away from hitting $4,000 as the US government shutdown enters its second week. This means the market’s rally is increasingly advancing in the absence of economic data to inform the health of said economy (or looking in the proverbial box to see if that cat is alive). Oil is higher despite OPEC+ increasing production again for November. While it could exacerbate an oversupplied market, investors are taking comfort that the production hike was less than feared. Global markets are a big story this morning, with Japanese stocks surging and French stock plunging both because of politics. In Japan, Sanae Takaichi surprised everyone to become the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party which means she is likely to become prime minister mid-October. To give you a sense of how much of a surprise this was, her Polymarket odds were at just 15% on Friday. Takaichi would be the first female Prime Minister in Japan and she is a champion of aggressive fiscal stimulus. The latter helped to boost Japanese stocks with the Nikkei soaring nearly 5% to hit a record, while the Yen is down 1.6% against the US dollar. While it might remind people of the Abenomics years, this time is slightly different because inflation is much higher and odds are increasing that this pushes up the likelihood of rate hikes by the central bank. It’s a different story in France with stocks down 1.3% after the sudden resignation of the Prime Minister after criticism of President Emmanuel Macron’s cabinet. This puts one of three scenarios on the table: a new prime minister, a parliamentary election, or a resignation by Macron.
Circle of business: Shares of AMD are soaring 30% (!!) after the chipmaker signed a deal with OpenAI to deploy AMD GPUs over multiple years. In exchange, OpenAI will receive warrants that could give them up to 160 million shares in the company (there are 1.6 billion shares outstanding) if certain goals including share price performance are met. A distant second to Nvidia when it comes to accelerator AI chips, this deal gives AMD a toehold into an ecosystem at the receiving end of trillions of spending. The deal may raise eyebrows. A customer (OpenAI) is investing in a supplier (AMD) and vesting is tied to AMD achieving certain share price targets which can be achieved if the customer buys more from the supplier. Certainly seems like a circular deal, although the CFO of AMD called it “strategic alignment.” 
Making Comerica great again: Fifth Third Bank is buying Comerica in a $10.9 billion deal that will make it the 9th largest bank in America. The deal is a 17% premium to Friday’s close and comes after Comerica faced activist pressure to sell itself. Comerica focuses on mid-market commercial lending and Fifth Third says they can reduce expenses by 35%. “The deal meaningfully accelerates (Fifth Third’s) efforts to build out its franchise in attractive markets,” wrote Evercore’s John Pancari (who also wrote that clever headline make Comerica great again), “No (tangible book value) dilution and 2027 expected EPS accretion should be well received, but 35% expense synergies could be a reach and regulatory capital implications not yet clear.” This is the biggest bank deal so far this year after a couple of smaller ones earlier this year. It comes as the Trump administration has loosened regulations on the sector that many believed would pave the way for consolidation. 
What’s the deal with Pembina Pipeline: Watch Pembina this morning after the company announced progress on its plans to build the 1,800 megawatt Greenlight Electricity Centre. I don’t know that what they’ve released is terribly exciting but the stock rallied Friday 6% after The Logic reported that Meta and Pembina along with its partners were nearing a deal to build an AI data centre in Alberta. Which I don’t see in this release. “The prospect of a major AI data center backed by Meta near Edmonton would be a major positive for the Alberta power market,” wrote Scotia’s Robert Hope this morning. Pembina plans to make a final investment decision on the plant in in the first half of 2026. “Pembina stands to benefit from the potential of a Meta data center through providing it with power from the proposed Greenlight Electricity Center. This facility could enter service towards the end of the decade, and we estimate it could represent an investment of ~$2b net to Pembina,” wrote Hope.
Do not disturb: Another chapter in the Dye and Durham saga this morning with top shareholder OneMove Capital echoing concerns from the former CFO last week saying the company is sitting on offers to buy the company. OneMove is backed by Tyler Proud, the brother of former CEO Matthew Proud. The brothers had a falling out about the direction of the company. Matthew Proud was ousted in an activist campaign led by Engine Capital, which now controls the board, and then came back to agitate for change through his vehicle Plantro (also a top shareholder). He agreed to a standstill when he got his nominee on the board. Now OneMove, aka Tyler Proud, came out this morning echoing concerns made by former CFO Ronnie Wahi lamenting that it has been 68 days since the strategic review was announced, no deals have been announced and they believe the company has received offers at a premium and accused them of not engaging with the buyers. Despite the prospect of a sale, investors aren’t sticking around for this drama with the stock hitting a record low on Friday.
We’ve got a great line up this week! Click here to see who is on deck!
