What happens when the war ends — and what is the market getting wrong right now? Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, joins In the Money with Amber Kanwar to break down what he sees as some of the most mispriced trades in global markets. From oil to gold to global equities, Boockvar argues that investors are too focused on short-term geopolitical moves — and missing the bigger structural shifts already underway.
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Unfortunately there were some conflicts with Mrs. Pelosi’s schedule and she will be unable to join us after all. April 1st can be a tricky day to get anything done.
Here are five things to know today:
Letdown: US stocks are poised for a weaker session after US President Donald Trump’s address to the nation last night failed to signal a clear end to the war. Crude oil is surging 8% trading at $108/barrel – a post-war high and the highest since the summer of 2022. Gold is under pressure as the US dollar catches a flight to safety. In other words, the typical “war is on” playbook that has characterized the last month for investors. Trump’s address contained no clear off-ramp to the war, indeed he warned of escalation in the coming weeks. Still, there was no announcement of boots on the ground and it was clear there is no appetite for a drawn out affair. “I no longer have confidence in any further upside for now until the war ends,” said Peter Boockvar of One Point BFG Partners in a note this morning. We spoke with him yesterday, ahead of the address, and he thinks the S&P 500 will continue to struggle even after the war is over. He thinks energy prices will remain elevated and commodities in general will be structural outperformers.
Billionaire rivalry: Shares of Globalstar are surging 15% on reports that Amazon is in buyout talks. This comes a few months after reports suggested that Starlink was also trying to buy Globalstar. The satellite communications company would help Amazon bolster its effort to build its own satellite operation to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink. So far, Amazon has been losing that competitive battle. Starlink, which connects people to the internet via satellite vs traditional in-ground methods (fibre, etc), has nearly 10,000 satellites in orbit and 10 million customers. Amazon deployed only 200 but wants to ramp that up to 7,700. Apple is key here as the company uses Globalstar for its emergency services and owns a 20% stake in the company through a special purpose entity (not common stock holder). This has potential impact for Canada’s MDA which builds components for Globalstar satellites. Desjardin’s Benoit Poirier says Amazon would be a better suitor from MDA’s perspective. “Our main takeaway is that if Globalstar is sold (a prospect that appears increasingly likely with two deep‑pocketed suitors), Amazon likely represents the better outcome for MDA (aka the lesser of two evils),” he wrote in a note, “Amazon is, in our view, likely to be more open and less rigid in working with another technology provider such as MDA, particularly given space is not its core business and Amazon needs to differentiate itself and catch up to SpaceX .”
Hang up: TD is downgrading three Canadian telcos on the risk of another price war. Maybe in today’s context we should use another word…on the risk of competition to reduce prices. Rogers, BCE and and Telus are all being downgraded to hold at TD Cowen. “The data on key volume (population) and price drivers has been weak throughout Q1/26,” wrote TD’s Vince Valentini, “but telco stocks have likely been supported by dividend yields and investors seeking safety from geopolitical uncertainties. Valentini warns the relative strength in telco stocks in a flight to safety is masking competitive behaviour by the telcos that is driving down prices.
Calling the top: RBC is downgrading Methanex after a 50% jump in shares this year catalyzed by the Iran war and supply disruptions. “The shares are increasingly becoming linked to the ongoing Iran conflict,” wrote RBC’s Nelson Ng, “Once the Iran conflict is resolved, we believe methanol prices could quickly normalize.”
Buyback: Scotia announced it got approval to buyback 15 million shares, or 1.2% of shares outstanding.
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