If tech was the best performer for 25 years because it took in all the cash… what do you think happens when all the cash flows into commodities and infrastructure?” That’s the big question driving today’s conversation—and according to Daniel Dreyfus, the answer could define the next decade of investing. In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Daniel Dreyfus, Chief Investment Officer at Bornite Capital, lays out his high-conviction thesis that we are in the early stages of the largest capital spending cycle in modern history.
Looking to invest in high-quality companies without high fees? The HAMILTON CHAMPIONS™ suite of ETFs offers exposure to diversified portfolios of equity champions across tech, financials, utilities, and dividend strategies, all with a low 0.19% management fee, designed to help you stay invested with confidence for the long term. For more information on the HAMILTON CHAMPIONS™ suite, visit: www.hamiltonetfs.com/hamilton-
The kids are off today and I tried to bribe them by saying whoever sleeps in the latest gets a sour key. This has backfired spectacularly with each waking up at the same time begging me for sour keys before I even open my eyes. Husband is silent on the matter. But that feels like its own indictment of my errors.
Here are five things to know today:
Reckoning: Stocks are sharply lower, bonds are selling off, gold is falling 3% and crude oil is popping 3%. It’s all one trade today: the lack of resolution in Iran post the US-China meeting is sinking in. Higher inflation is hitting the bond market and with the US 10-year yield trading at a one-year high the stock market is finding it harder to ignore these realities. “Risk assets get twitchy,” with inflation above 4% writes Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett in a note to clients. The 30-year bond yield in the US has breached 5% for the first time since last year marking another challenge for risk assets (although each time it has tested 5% in the last few years it doesn’t breach much beyond that before falling again). Add to this, bonds globally are being pressured. In the UK, 10-year yields are hitting an 18-year high on continued pressure for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to resign (he would be the 6th Prime Minister in the last 10 years). In Japan, producer price inflation soared setting the stage for a rate hike next month and causing their 10-year bond to hit a 29-year high. None of this happened overnight, it just seems like the market just decided to care about it now. While the US-China summit was full of pleasantries, it was light on breakthroughs particularly no “grand bargain” on trade or tensions in Iran. Watching for 13F filings (hedge funds filing their positions 45 days after quarter end) which are trickling out today.
Bad day for good news: Applied Materials is falling 2% caught in an ugly tape despite solid quarterly results and a rosy forecast. The world’s largest semiconductor equipment maker grew sales 11% which is the best pace of growth since 2022. The company is forecasting is can do better next quarter with 15-30% top line growth thanks to AI-driven demand for data centre chips. “Compared with 90 days ago, the drivers of the company increasing semis growth expectations from 20%+ to 30%+ is that there is more intensity in the same strong areas…” wrote Citi’s Atif Malik, “Management does not see it as a pull-in from (2027) but as demand broadening instead.” Shares are near a record high and are up 70% so far in 2026 making it ripe for profit taking on a risk-off day.
Pershing push: Bill Ackman revealed one of his newest positions is Microsoft in a post on X this morning. “A company we have followed for many years now offered at a highlight compelling valuation,” he wrote. He says his newest publicly traded fund, Pershing Square USA also made Microsoft a core holding. Shares have lagged the market, down 9% over the past year as investors worry about its software footing as AI competitors emerge and whether its cloud growth is sustainable. Ackman believes both worries are unfounded. He believes Microsoft’s AI embedded agents withing M365 will improve the product and lead to more customer adoption over time. Microsoft is also adjusting its pricing model from pay-per-seat to pay-per-consumption. On cloud, Ackman believes the recent decision to restructure its partnership with OpenAI will allow Microsoft to pivot toward a more open model working with other LLMs. Ackman also owns Google, Amazon and Meta.
Figment: Shares Figma are popping 7% after sales increased 46% – slightly more than expected and profit was nearly triple expected. The cloud based software designer has been under extreme pressure – down 45% so far this year – on concerns that AI can replace its offering. Figma hit back at that idea with strong growth while also increasing its forecast. It has been embedding AI tools that are resonating with customers. Even with the sell off the stock is expensive trading at 76x forward earnings. Figma has only been a public company for less than a year going public in July at $33/share. “Figma’s competitive moat is evidenced by the long and diverse list of digital experiences created within the platform, including those for Netflix, Slack, Spotify, Uber, and more,” wrote Stifel’s J. Parker Lane who says despite this the valuation keeps them on hold.
Stuffed crust: Another plot twist in the years long saga to take Papa John’s private. Reuters is reporting that one of its largest franchisees is willing to join the Qatari bid from years ago in a move that could actually seal the deal. Irth Capital, which is founded by a member of the Qatari royal family, has previously offered $47/share to take the company private in a deal backed by Brookfield Asset Management. Adding a top franchisee could help get the deal over the finish line amidst continued weak performance at the pizza chain. Although after several false starts, the stock still isn’t trading close to the offer price.
Don’t miss our next episode!
