If you’re looking to build a portfolio for the next decade—not chase yesterday’s winners—Garey Aitken says it’s time to get much more selective. Canada’s rally may not be over, but after one of the strongest runs in years, finding value has become much harder. The Head of Canadian Equities at Franklin Templeton’s ClearBridge Investments joins Amber Kanwar to explain where he’s taking profits, why he still likes energy, and the overlooked companies he believes could be the market’s next winners.
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Past Picks Update (from April 22, 2025)
- Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) — up 72%: A home run, just as Garey promised. CNQ is still one of the best ways to play energy and commands his biggest weight in the sector — a go-to, index-heavyweight name he’d have no problem adding to at the margin.
- Canadian National Railway (CNR) — up 40%: A back-end-loaded winner that took a while to work. Garey’s thesis was that nothing was structurally broken — just cyclical headwinds — so it was the time to be interested and wait for better days. A constructive agreement with Union Pacific (granting CN market access to part of UNP’s network) turned a merger it once opposed into a win, and the stock has been hitting 52-week highs. Still a holder, not trimming yet, though he sees it entering the later innings of the relative trade.
- Fortis (FTS) – up 27%: The anchor utility name has shined on the data-center and electrification theme, which solidified the market’s view on long-term rate-based dividend growth. It’s since been downgraded at CIBC on valuation, and Garey agrees it’s no longer cheap — his team has been trimming utilities (in hindsight a touch early) — but he still “can’t say enough about the execution” and keeps Fortis as his core utility holding.
Average return: +46%
Boyd Group Services (BYD)
Boyd is one of North America’s largest collision-repair operators — and a former go-go growth story now down about 35% this year.
- Punished far more than warranted: The stock has seen a massive correction in its multiple, driven by softer same-store sales across the whole North American collision-repair industry — a function of miles driven, used-car values, and insurance deductibles, not AI. Garey argues the sell-off has overshot the actual deterioration in the business.
- The growth runway is intact: He still sees plenty of good years ahead — continued (if less accretive) growth by acquisition, a return to more consistent organic/same-store growth, and margins that have actually expanded a touch. His funds have bought “quite a bit of stock” in recent quarters.
- Self-help and a shifting shareholder base: A rotating shareholder base, renewed emphasis on investor relations, and the possibility of activist interest could all help. Garey thinks weak management communication drove much of the punishment — and that confidence can be rebuilt, though not in a single quarter. One for patient investors.
Ticker: BYD (TSX)
Stantec (STN)
Stantec is a global engineering and design firm — “a compounder until it wasn’t,” now trading at its lowest level since 2023.
- The numbers still look good: Over 20+ years, Stantec built a terrific growth-by-acquisition record. Garey is close to management and simply isn’t seeing the trouble in the results; the fall from grace reflects lofty expectations meeting organic growth that came in a few points light (mostly the U.S. business), not a broken model.
- AI fear is overdone: Like Canadian peers AtkinsRéalis and WSP, Stantec got caught in the AI-disruption panic — but hands-on, involved engineering projects are hard to automate (“you can’t claw AI up a building”). Garey singled it out as a great business that will “be just fine,” and expects to “make a lot of money from here.”
- It doesn’t need aggressive M&A to work: Acquisitions remain part of the future but can be lumpy, and in a competitive, private-equity-heavy market Garey doesn’t want deals for their own sake. The thesis rests on more consistent organic growth and disciplined pricing — they’ve “got to make the numbers work.”
Ticker: STN (TSX / NYSE)
Thomson Reuters (TRI)
Thomson Reuters is the legal, tax, and news information-and-software giant — right in the eye of the AI storm and down roughly 60%.
- A valuation reset created the entry: For years Garey avoided it, with the multiple peaking around 30x EV/EBITDA. Only once AI fears — including new offerings from the likes of Anthropic’s Claude encroaching on its legal and tax software — broke the stock down to ~12–13x did it start to make sense for him.
- A real margin of safety: He’s buying at more than a 50% discount — “close to 50 cents on the dollar.” If he’s right, that sets up outsized returns for the next decade; if he’s wrong and growth slows, the discount still cushions the downside to a decent return.
- On the other side of the crowd: The same people who loved it at 30x are now calling for “terminal risk” and the end of these businesses. Looking across its big segments, Garey doesn’t think the end is near — and is happy to take the other side of that trade.
Ticker: TRI (TSX / NYSE)
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DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated and should be checked against actual delivery. The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
