The AI trade is getting tired, inflation isn’t going away, and some of the market’s biggest winners may no longer be the best places to invest. Is it time to get defensive? On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, top-performing stock picker Lyle Stein, President of Forvest Canada returns with a warning for investors: “This is a time to be more cautious than optimistic.”
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When Lyle joined us on October 2, 2025, he brought two silver plays and a nat gas producer. Even after silver’s 50% plunge from its highs, all three are still up.
- Peyto Exploration (PEY): +46%. The standout in a gas patch full of dogs. Good management, a high dividend, and capital returned to shareholders instead of spent drilling more wells. He still owns it.
- Sprott (SII): +27%. A leveraged play on precious metals. He sold it to bring down his precious metals weighting.
- First Majestic Silver (FR): +23%. Also sold. He’s skeptical of silver here and wants to see a turn before adding back.
He also still owns Vermilion Energy (VET), which gets European prices for its gas, 7 to 10 times what Canadian gas fetches.
1. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM)
The premier stock in gold mining, and you’re not buying it for one quarter.
- The stock trades like gold, and gold has slid from about $5,200 to around $4,000. It’s lagged a little more because it’s the go-to name for generalists: when U.S. balanced funds get into gold, they buy Agnico, and when they bail, they sell it.
- Last quarter was soft on costs. Lyle’s view is that you own it for the discipline: bringing mines on at or below cost, in sequence, and only in safe jurisdictions.
- New mines are scheduled to come online over the next one to two years.
- It’s now returning money through dividends and buybacks. He expects another dividend increase within the next 12 months.
2. Micron Technology (MU)
You have to own something in AI. Lyle would rather own the company getting the cash than the ones spending it.
- Micron is down 30% from its June peak along with the rest of the semis. AI is more than 40% of U.S. market cap, so the question is which poison to eat to stay diversified.
- The hyperscalers are burning through their cash flow to fund AI. Google went cash flow negative, and Amazon’s spending is eating its cash too. Memory is a big part of what they’re spending on, and memory is hard to get.
- Lyle pegs Micron at roughly 4.5 to 5 times earnings, with huge free cash flow and cash in the bank. If the cycle rolls over, it can buy back a ton of stock.
- The memory cycle is less scary this time. Long-term contracts with hyperscalers should keep Micron profitable even in a downturn. He’d rather lose money on a 5x stock that can still grow than on a 25–30x stock whose multiple can get creamed.
3. iShares iBonds Term TIPS ETFs (IBIE, IBIF and up)
A GIC ladder with inflation protection, built for your RRSP.
- These are U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities with a set maturity date. IBIE matures in October 2028, IBIF in 2029, and the series runs further out. At maturity, the fund closes and pays back your money plus the inflation adjustment.
- You get a coupon of about 2.5% today, plus full inflation protection. If inflation runs 5% a year for two years, a $100 investment pays back about $110 at maturity. If inflation falls, you still collect the coupon.
- Use it as a cash alternative or to fund retirement withdrawals. Ladder the maturities so you can meet your RRIF payouts without selling stocks in a down market. For a shorter-term, non-dated option, he also likes STIP.
- Hold it in your RRSP. In a non-registered account, you’re taxed on the inflation adjustment.
- His macro view: governments either inflate their way out of debt or default and deflate. Deflation hurts everyone, so they’ll choose inflation.
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DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated and should be checked against actual delivery. The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
