Tariffs are dominating the headlines, but they’re not the biggest risk Jean-François Tardif sees for investors. The President of Timelo Investment Management is cautious on the economy, skeptical that the massive AI spending boom can last and actively positioning for downside. He explains why he’s short Canadian banks and semiconductors, using puts on the S&P 500 and Nvidia, and preparing his portfolio for what could happen when AI spending eventually rolls over. At the same time, Tardif remains net long equities through gold and oil, explains why he sees gold stocks as significantly more attractive than copper right now and tells us his top gold stock.
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Scorecard: last year’s picks (July 22, 2025)
Total Energy Services (TOT): +213% · Still holds. The home run. Earnings he expected to double over three-to-five years got most of the way there in one, and with US compression capacity ramping, a market-leading Australian business, and net cash for another acquisition, he sees room toward $50+.
Calian Group (CGY):+54% · Still holds. Staffing, training and government work riding Canadian and European defense-spending increases. Re-rated from ~10x to ~14x earnings, still growing, still acquiring.
H&R REIT (HR.UN): -12% · The miss. No clean buyer emerged; instead a controversial “take-under” — Go Residential taking the residential portfolio, Blackstone the industrial, founder Tom Hofstedter keeping non-core pieces — that’s drawn conflict-of-interest concerns. JF trimmed near $12 last year, bought more after the deal on the drop (~$11 → ~$9.75) since he’d get cheap Go shares either way, and plans to vote against it.
Top 3 Ideas: Stocks on Sale
1. Adentra (ADEN) — the patient consolidator
Sub-$1B building-products distributor. Flat for one year — and for five.
- Cheap and cash-generative. Trades around 8.5x earnings and ~6x EBITDA, throwing off free cash flow every quarter, with a track record of creating value through M&A.
- Ready for the next deal. Post-COVID acquisitions pushed up debt; the balance sheet has since healed, and they’re positioned to resume acquiring in a highly fragmented lumber/building-products market where they can be the consolidator.
- Housing is the free option. He’s not betting on a housing recovery — the stock is cheap with housing weak. If starts turn up, you get margin expansion on top; that’s the kicker, not the thesis.
2. Colliers International (CIGI) — the mispriced compounder
Down ~42% on the year — while profits and estimates went up. That’s pure multiple compression on a quality name.
- A compounder on sale. Founder-led by Jay Hennick, still growing and acquiring, now at ~12x earnings — among the cheapest it’s ever been — for roughly an 8% free-cash-flow yield with growth, which management reinvests into more acquisitions.
- The AI fear is overdone. The de-rating reflects worry that AI erodes property management, brokerage and its WSP-style engineering platform. JF is skeptical — like CAD software before it, AI should make projects bigger and better, not kill the work.
- Office recovery is the kicker. Heavily exposed to commercial property; as offices refill, “the earnings are going to go up a lot” — and if they don’t, you’re still paid to wait at 12x.
3. Dutch Bros (BROS) — growth at a fire sale
Drive-thru coffee and energy drinks that recently imploded — his classic “buy a grower on the dip” setup, and least JF-like sector on the list.
- 20%+ growth, small base. ~17% annual store-count growth plus 5–8% same-store comps puts total growth north of 20%, with food only just being introduced across the fleet — a company that can double, triple, quadruple its footprint over time.
- Expensive optically, cheap on growth. ~42x P/E looks steep, but Starbucks (not growing) is ~34x, and peers like Cava (~92x) and Shake Shack (~52x) show the market pays far more for this kind of US growth.
- The math. Grow ~20% a year and it doubles in about three-and-a-half years — so today’s 42x becomes ~21x on that forward earnings base.
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DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated and should be checked against actual delivery. The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
