Everyone calls David Rosenberg a permabear but he says he’s fully invested, just in completely different places than the consensus. On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Rosenberg breaks down why he’s still in the market despite sounding the alarm on what he sees as extreme valuations, bubble-like behaviour, and a dangerous level of investor complacency. From a “teflon market” that shrugs off every shock, to an equity market where investors are effectively paying to take risk, he explains why this cycle feels eerily similar to the late-90s tech mania.
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Pro Picks: David Rosenberg Economist & Founder, Rosenberg Research
Rosenberg is fully invested — just not in the S&P 500. His portfolio reflects a simple thesis: bonds over stocks, hard assets over tech, and defense as a backdoor technology play.
#1 Short-Term Bonds — Highest Conviction Canada 2-Year Bond (15.1%) | UTWO — U.S. Treasury 2-Year Note ETF (9.8%)
- Market is pricing in rate hikes in both Canada and the US — Rosenberg thinks it’s dead wrong
- No wage-price spiral this time around; real incomes have contracted three months in a row
- Bank of Canada explicitly flagged lingering excess supply and a disinflationary output gap
- Historical parallel: in the Gulf War, oil spiked from $15 to $40 and Greenspan cut rates five times anyway
- “When I see the markets have a different view than me and I’m confident of my view — I like that because it means there’s an opportunity”
#2 Gold & Gold Miners GLD — SPDR Gold Shares (5.8%) | GDX — VanEck Gold Miners ETF (5.5%)
- Gold has pulled back about 20% from its peak — he’s adding, not selling
- Counts roughly 20 corrections since the gold bull market began in 1999 — none changed his thesis
- Post-Iran war supply chain fragility creates a structurally higher floor under commodities
- Trimmed at the top but never went to zero — now rebuilding the position
- “The thesis has to change for me to change my views”
#3 Broad Commodities PICK — iShares Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (4.7%) | REMX — VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals (4.7%) | CRAK — VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (6.3%) | PPLN — Global X Equal Weight Canadian Pipelines ETF (4.3%) | IBAT — iShares Energy Storage & Materials ETF (4.8%)
- Closure of the Strait of Hormuz was a wake-up call for every company and government on earth
- Years of higher inventory maintenance ahead, meaning structurally stronger raw material demand
- Likes aluminum, nickel, copper, rare earths, and energy infrastructure — broad diversification, not single-commodity bets
- “There’s going to be a more natural higher floor under the commodity complex”
#4 Defense as a Tech Play SHLD — Global X Defense Tech ETF (1.7%) | BUG — Global X Cybersecurity ETF (2.2%)
- Defense stocks sold off during the Iran war due to margin calls and profit-taking — he sees that as an entry point
- His argument: defense IS technology — cyber, advanced weapons systems, AI-enabled hardware
- Skipped the Mag 7 entirely and expressed his tech exposure through defense instead
- Order books are full; budgets rising globally including in historically pacifist Germany and Japan
- Pentagon needs to replenish munitions used in the Iran conflict — structural demand driver
- “It’s like buying tech at better valuations”
#5 Clean Energy — Contrarian, Smaller Weight ICLN — iShares Global Clean Energy ETF (4.7%)
- Trump is a lame duck after November — his anti-clean energy stance has a shorter shelf life than people think
- Every country now has a fresh memory of what energy supply disruption looks like
- China leads the roadmap — roughly half its energy needs now met by clean energy despite being the world’s biggest polluter
- Europe and Asia following suit; US will eventually follow
- “Clean energy is not going to be impaired by any rogue country using a waterway as a war weapon”
ALL HOLDINGS
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DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated and should be checked against actual delivery. The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
