Global electricity demand is growing more than twice as fast as overall energy demand, according to the International Energy Agency—so how should investors be positioned to capitalize on this explosive shift? On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Robert Thummel, Managing Director & Senior Portfolio Manager at Tortoise Capital, explains why “electricity is the new oil” and how the rise of AI, data centres, and electrification is driving a once-in-a-generation opportunity across energy infrastructure, natural gas, and power generation.
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4 Energy Plays for the AI Revolution
Vistra Energy (VST)
The Independent Power Producer Sitting at the Epicenter of AI Electricity Demand — Down 40% From Peak, But the Thesis Is Intact
- Vistra’s generation assets are concentrated in the two highest-demand electricity regions in the US: the PJM (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland) and Texas ERCOT — the exact geographies where data center buildout is most aggressive and where power prices are most likely to rise
- The stock trades at a discounted multiple relative to the quality of its assets and cash flows, with a high free cash flow yield that Thummel argues is not reflected in the current price — down roughly 40% from its peak, much of the valuation excess has been washed out
- The regulatory risk of electricity price caps — the biggest bear case — is being addressed through behind-the-meter power arrangements, where hyperscalers like Meta, Google, and Microsoft contract directly with power producers, keeping costs off residential bills entirely and insulating Vistra from political backlash
- If AI is the next economy and electricity is the new oil, Vistra is one of the most direct ways to own that thesis at a price that no longer requires perfection
Williams Companies (WMB)
The Natural Gas Infrastructure Giant Pioneering Behind-the-Meter Power — At an All-Time High With More Room to Run
- Williams is one of the largest natural gas pipeline operators in the US and is pioneering the behind-the-meter model: building dedicated natural gas-powered plants contracted directly to hyperscalers, bypassing the public grid entirely and solving the rate payer protection problem that threatens other power producers
- The business model is elegant — Williams builds the plant, signs a long-term contract with the hyperscaler, the hyperscaler pays for the power, and residential consumers are completely insulated; this positions Williams as a solutions provider to Big Tech, not just an energy utility
- Dividend expected to grow 6–8% annually as behind-the-meter projects scale across the US, with each new data center deal adding durable, contracted cash flow to an already high-quality pipeline infrastructure business
- Trading at an all-time high, yet Thummel sees continued upside — the behind-the-meter opportunity is still in early innings and Williams has a first-mover advantage in what could become the dominant power delivery model for AI infrastructure
EQT Corporation (EQT)
America’s Largest Natural Gas Producer — Hated by the Market, Loved by Thummel
- EQT is the largest natural gas producer in the US, with world-class assets in Appalachia and a management team with a track record of operational excellence and capital discipline — the Street is universally bullish and yet the stock has stubbornly refused to work, almost entirely due to persistently low domestic natural gas prices
- The global catalyst is now arriving: the Qatar LNG facility — the world’s second-largest LNG exporter — was struck during the Iran conflict and is offline for several years, creating a structural shortage of global LNG supply that US producers like EQT are uniquely positioned to fill
- EQT has begun contracting to sell gas directly on international markets, routing through Cheniere’s export facility — this direct exposure to global LNG pricing is the bridge from a regional commodity story to a global one, and the pricing uplift could be dramatic
- The risk is timing — natural gas prices remain low domestically and the global demand signal hasn’t fully materialized yet, but Thummel’s view is that the long-term setup is too compelling to wait for the catalyst to be obvious
Expand Energy (EXE)
The Other Natural Gas Compounder — Same Thesis, Different Asset Base
- Expand Energy is EQT’s closest peer — a large-scale US natural gas producer run by a strong management team, equally positioned to benefit from the same global LNG demand surge as the Qatar supply gap creates a years-long shortage in international markets
- Like EQT, Expand has been a consensus buy that hasn’t performed, weighed down by the same low domestic natural gas price environment — Thummel views the underperformance as an opportunity rather than a red flag, given the quality of the underlying business
- The stock provides diversification within the natural gas producer theme — owning both EQT and Expand gives exposure to the same macro tailwind across two best-in-class operators, reducing single-stock execution risk while doubling down on the conviction
- Thummel’s bottom line on both names: natural gas is becoming a global commodity, the US is the swing supplier, and the first meaningful uptick in global pricing will be a significant catalyst for both stocks simultaneously
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DISCLAIMER: The content provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and was drafted with AI assistance. It does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed are those of the guest and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of In the Money with Amber Kanwar or AK Media Inc. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
