Semiconductors are ripping, trillion-dollar valuations are becoming the norm, and now the most hyped IPO in years is looming. So… is this the moment everything peaks? On this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, Mark Sebastian, Founder of Option Pit, returns with a view of a market that’s moving faster—and getting more crowded—by the day. From Micron’s explosive run to Nvidia’s “vampire trade” losing steam, Mark explains how capital is rotating across semis in real time—and why he’s not shorting this market, even as signs of froth start to build.
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Sebastian was last on In the Money on January 30th, 2025 with three picks. Here’s the scorecard:
- Reddit (RDDT) — Down 27% since the pick, though it did run as high as $280 before pulling back. Sebastian trimmed at $230–240, bought back in at $140, and is now running a covered call strategy at the $200 level. Still owns a core position.
- Boeing (BA) — Up 22% since the pick but Sebastian has moved on. He called it a good trade, not a long-term hold, and exited. At $220+ per share, the position size economics didn’t work for his trading approach.
- Amazon (AMZN) — Up 13% since the pick and making fresh all-time highs. Sebastian continues to hold a core position, trimming on strength and buying pullbacks — the same trader-investor framework he applies across his whole book.
His latest Pro Picks:
DE — Deere & Company Industrials — Secret AI data center infrastructure play
Down 20% from its February high, Deere is offering a second entry point for investors who missed the original run — and the thesis has nothing to do with tractors.
- The AI data center buildout requires heavy construction equipment, and Deere is all over those job sites with excavators and machinery. Sebastian sees Deere as a stealth infrastructure play on the AI boom, not just a farm equipment company.
- Current PE sits around 29 — elevated, but that’s because the farming side just reported an abysmal quarter weighed down by sky-high fertilizer prices. If farming normalizes and AI infrastructure demand holds, the forward multiple is likely understated.
- Sebastian’s price target is $750 from the current $528. The temporary weakness in the farming division is the entry point — if you believe fertilizer prices ease and AI capex keeps climbing, this is the setup.
F — Ford Motor Company Industrials — Energy storage pivot, data center angle
This one has nothing to do with cars. Ford’s battery business — originally built for the F-150 Lightning EV program — is being redeployed as an energy storage solution for data centers, and that pivot is just starting to get priced in.
- Ford built out significant battery and energy delivery infrastructure for its EV ambitions. With the EV market stalling, that capacity is now being redirected toward data center energy storage — a massive and fast-growing market.
- The F-150 remains the best-selling vehicle in North America and is the dominant truck on construction and AI infrastructure job sites. As gas prices potentially pull back, demand for F-150s could accelerate alongside the energy storage business.
- Sebastian has held thousands of shares at varying prices for years waiting for the thesis to play out. He believes the market is only beginning to recognize the value of Ford’s infrastructure pivot.
USAR — USA Rare Earth Materials — US government-backed full-stack rare earth producer
One of the most direct plays on the US government’s push for critical minerals independence — and it has the receipts. The US government has taken a 10% equity stake in the company and a 10-year offtake agreement obligating it to buy 100% of their rare earth magnets above a fixed price floor.
- USA Rare Earth is building a fully integrated rare earth operation — from mining to refining to magnet production. Magnets are in everything: cell phones, computers, electric motors, defence systems. Right now the US is almost entirely dependent on China for them.
- The magnet factory is already open. The key catalyst is EPA approval for the mine — and Sebastian’s logic is simple: the US government doesn’t take a 10% stake and sign a 10-year offtake agreement and then block the mine permit.
- This is one of the clearest examples of the US government’s new strategic investing posture — using equity stakes and offtake agreements to build domestic critical minerals capacity. The regulatory tailwind is real.
AREC — American Resources Corp Materials — Speculative | Rare earth recycling, $200M market cap, $2 stock
This one is not for the faint of heart. Sebastian is explicit: it could go to zero, or it could go to $20. He sizes it accordingly.
- AREC focuses on rare earth recycling — recovering and reprocessing rare earth materials from existing sources rather than primary mining. If rare earth demand stays elevated and recycling scales, this becomes a very different company.
- Sebastian has already traded it once — bought it, watched it run from $2 to $7, sold a large chunk near the top, bought it all back when it returned to $2, and now holds more than his original position because the profits from the first trade funded the reload.
- Think of it as a long-dated call option on rare earth demand continuing to grow. The upside case is that AREC becomes the next MP Materials. The downside case is zero. Position size accordingly.
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