Rising interest rates have punished real estate stocks and left investors wondering: Is real estate dead money? Jeff Olin, President & CEO and Portfolio Manager at Vision Capital Corporation, says absolutely not. While higher rates matter, he argues that supply and demand ultimately matter more—and that today’s disconnect between public and private real estate markets is creating opportunities. With billions of dollars of private capital still looking for deals, Olin expects the wave of M&A in real estate to continue.
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Past picks scorecard
Jeff’s picks from last September beat the index across the board.
- First Capital REIT (FCR.UN): taken out at a 22% premium. The big win. A consortium led by Choice Properties and KingSett agreed to buy it at $24.40, a portfolio Jeff once called the highest-quality grocery-anchored real estate in the world when it traded at $13.24.
- Dream Industrial REIT (DIR.UN): up 7.6%. Still a favourite. Vision trimmed around $14.25 and bought back below $13. Small-bay, last-mile industrial in Canada, 40% of the portfolio in the Netherlands and Germany, and a well-covered dividend. Jeff prefers it over Granite.
- Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH.UN): up 7%. He’s bringing it back as his top pick this year (below).
Jeff Olin’s Pro Picks
1. Chartwell Retirement Residences (TSX: CSH.UN) — Top Pick
- Occupancy: back to 95%, with some communities running near 100%
- Valuation: trades at a discount to net asset value, while U.S. peer Welltower trades at a 120% premium
- Demographics: the leading edge of the baby boom turned 75 in 2021; Canada’s 80+ population is proportionally 16% larger than the U.S.
- Thesis: a 20-year demographic tailwind with demand growing about 4% a year and next to no new supply, as older buildings get demolished faster than new ones open. Chartwell is in the market-rate segment, not regulated nursing homes, so rents aren’t capped. Low leverage, no tariff exposure, and Jeff thinks 95% isn’t the ceiling. “That is our blood. We love supply and demand stories.”
2. Brookdale Senior Living (NYSE: BKD)
- Price: about US$11; Vision’s value estimate is US$19
- Structure: a corporation, not a REIT; the largest retirement community operator in the U.S.
- Leverage: expected to be down 30% by year-end
- Thesis: an occupancy growth story under a new CEO, one year in, who came from Sunrise and hospitality and has shifted the culture. Seniors housing is an operating business like hotels, so management matters most. Brookdale is exiting money-losing leased properties, which explains why revenue estimates are falling (Bloomberg has them down about 8%) while cash flow improves. It’s moving from burning cash to generating it.
3. Csquare (NYSE: CSQR)
- Price: about US$16, versus a US$21 IPO price this summer (marketed at US$24–27)
- Net asset value: US$25 by Vision’s estimate
- Market cap: about US$2.5 billion; sponsored and largely owned by Brookfield
- Thesis: the “boring” part of data centres. Csquare runs colocation facilities where internet interconnection and e-commerce transactions happen, not giant AI training campuses. Even if AI demand were zero, Jeff sees 40% demand growth from cloud and telecom. It has spare power at existing sites, giving it roughly 10 years of growth without greenfield builds. The market is fixated on leverage, but Jeff says debt-to-EBITDA looks dramatically better a year out. First quarterly report is due in November. “You can pound the table on this name today.”
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DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated and should be checked against actual delivery. The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
