A year ago, Bob Thompson called commodities the trade of the decade. Since then, silver miners, energy stocks and commodity-focused funds have delivered massive gains. But with gold down sharply from its highs, oil rolling over and investors questioning whether the trade has become too crowded, is it time to take profits—or is this just a correction within a much bigger bull market?
Pro Picks is brought to you by ATB Financial. With over $100 billion in assets, ATB Financial is powering possibilities for more than 843,000 financial services clients. ATB Cormark Capital Markets is a leading North American investment firm providing holistic corporate and capital markets advice and full-service financial solutions. Visit www.ATB.com/inthemoney for more information.
LAST YEAR’S PICKS — STILL HOLDING, STILL WORKING
Thompson’s picks from July 7 last year have all delivered strong returns:
- Sprott Physical Silver and Silver Miners ETF (SLVR): +65%
- Dynamic Active Mining Opportunities ETF (DXMO): +53%
- Ninepoint Energy Fund: +56%
“Still holding them, haven’t added to them — rotated a little into some other areas,” he said, while flagging the recent capitulation as a potential re-entry point for new capital, not an exit signal for what he already owns.
THE THREE NEW PICKS
Fidelity Global Value Long Short Fund (FGLS) | The insurance policy that’s actually paying you to be patient
- 100% long, 50% short, run by 15-year veteran manager Dan Dupont — a long-only track record with zero down years over that span
- Long book: hated, out-of-favour value names — Constellation Software, Adobe, Pfizer — across consumer staples, defensives, and healthcare
- Short book: the most expensive, highest-multiple names in the market, with beta 3-5x the long book, meaning the short side does outsized work without needing a huge dollar allocation
- The pitch: this isn’t a return-chasing trade right now — it’s a structural hedge. In 2022’s selloff, the fund was up 68%
- Thompson is actively building this position into market strength, aiming for a full weighting within 10% of his average cost
Nutrien (NTR) | Best-in-class franchise, down 27% for reasons that don’t reflect the business
- Down 27% from its February/March peak — but Thompson argues that’s a correlation problem, not a fundamentals problem: hedge funds bucket Nutrien with energy, so it sold off in sympathy with oil
- 1,800 retail locations selling farm equipment and inputs beyond just potash — a diversification edge over peers like Mosaic
- Returned roughly $400 million to shareholders via dividends and buybacks in Q1 alone; dividend yield now north of 3.5%
- Holds both potash and nitrogen exposure — relevant if El Niño materializes this year and pressures crop efficiency, a catalyst Thompson says isn’t yet priced in
- Thesis: agricultural commodities tend to run after energy does — Nutrien is the way to play that lag
iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) | A 15-year breakout, trading at less than half the US multiple
- Brazil trades at roughly 10x earnings versus ~22-23x for the US — a valuation gap Thompson sees as a margin of safety, not a value trap
- Commodity-heavy index: Petrobras is 13% of the ETF, Vale (diversified mining) a significant weight, and banks make up 30% — banks that do heavy business with the resource sector
- Political overhang in Brazil is real, but Thompson believes it’s largely priced in already
- The technical setup: a 15-year chart showing EWZ breaking out and retesting that breakout level now
- Broader macro logic: commodities, international equities, and emerging markets all tend to outperform when the US dollar weakens — and Thompson expects a multi-year downtrend in the dollar from here, even with the current counter-trend rally
Don’t miss our next episode! Send us your questions! Email questions@inthemoneypod.com
DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated and should be checked against actual delivery. The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
