Global government spending is reshaping the investing landscape—but are you following where the money is actually going? While everyone is focused on AI, Bryden Teich, Chief Investment Officer at Avenue Investment Management, argues the biggest market story is the massive fiscal spending boom unfolding across Canada, the U.S., and around the world. He explains why industrials, financials, energy infrastructure, and other resilient businesses stand to benefit, why he’s still bullish on Canada despite recent economic challenges, why he’s underweight big tech, why he trimmed gold after its surge, and how he builds a portfolio designed to perform through changing market cycles.
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AutoZone (AZO)
- Held since 2020; down almost 30% over the past year, but Bryden frames the pullback as multiple compression, not a broken thesis
- Thesis: proxy for the age of cars in the U.S. and miles driven per year — a structurally stable number for decades
- Average U.S. car is now ~13 years old, meaning most cars are off warranty — supports sustained aftermarket parts demand
- Sector supply is flat to shrinking while demand grows — a rare setup
- One of the most prolific buyback names in the market — has repurchased its entire market cap several times over since the 1990s
- No acquisitions, ever — pure organic growth
- Tariff-driven uncertainty and stalled earnings growth have weighed on the multiple, but Bryden views this drawdown as an attractive entry point
Toromont Industries (TIH)
- Largest publicly traded Caterpillar dealer; well-run, diversified into rental equipment and service
- A quasi-AI infrastructure play: their AVL Manufacturing acquisition (Hamilton-based) makes power enclosure modules now in high demand for AI data center backup power
- AVL also expanding its Charlotte, NC facility — added U.S. exposure alongside Canadian fiscal spending tailwinds
- Fiscally conservative balance sheet; on the dividend aristocrat list
- Bryden’s caveat: expectations and multiple are both higher now after three years of ownership — he calls it a “good problem” name with less room for error if AI capex slows
Couche-Tard (ATD)
- Long-time holding; stock was range-bound post the failed 7-Eleven bid, then hit a record high last week as sentiment shifted
- The overhang from the 7-Eleven pursuit — which would have required major debt and equity issuance — is gone, and Bryden sees that as a net positive
- Focus has shifted to merchandising and in-store experience in the U.S., following the Casey’s General Store playbook
- Strong fuel margins; large, regionally-tailored store network
- Consistent buyback program shrinks share count over time
- High insider/family ownership keeps incentives aligned with shareholders
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DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated and should be checked against actual delivery. The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
