The unintended consequences of three different schools: three different parent coffees and three different barbecues. Today the day is bookended with a parent coffee this morning and not one, but two, school spirit barbecues.
Markets are at record highs, but can the rally last? In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, renowned technical analyst Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies dives deep into the power of technical analysis explaining how she uses price trends to spot market tops, breakouts, and buy signals. She shares why technicals became a crucial tool for investors after 2008, how they help manage risk, and why even long-term investors should respect what the charts are saying. Listen now on Apple, Spotify, or here.
Doves fly: Futures are ripping with NASDAQ indicated 1% higher after the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points the first time in 2025. There was one dissenter – the newly appointed Stephen Miran – who wanted a larger 50 basis point rate cut. At the meeting each Fed member plots out where they think rates are going, called the Summary of Economic Projections or the dot plots. The dot plots suggested two more rate cuts this year. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell attempted to throw cold water on the idea highlighting that while job growth has stalled, unemployment is still low and the balance of risks is still tilted toward higher inflation. Nevertheless, the markets are choosing to focus on a more dovish interpretation (meaning skewed toward lower interest rates). The TSX eked out a small gain yesterday boosted by telcos as the Bank of Canada cut rates for the first time since March to the lowest level in two years. Here too, the Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem doused ideas that more rate cuts would be coming and the market reduced the odds of an October rate cut to no better than a coin toss (it was 60% before yesterday’s rate decision). Later today we will get a pulse of the global economy with FedEx slated to report quarterly results. Although as we will see below, the biggest driver of a lot of today’s moves are related more to US President Donald Trump than anything else.
A little help from my friends: Shares of Intel are ripping up 27% after signing an agreement with Nvidia. Nvidia will invest $5 billion at a purchase price of $23.38/share. So they are already massively up on that investment with the stock around $32/share in the pre-market. This is the biggest one-day gain for Intel since 1987. The world’s most innovative chip company announced a partnership to develop custom data centre and PC products with a chip company that has missed almost every single innovation cycle in the last 20 years. But I digress. I’m also a holder of Intel, so I really shouldn’t be complaining! It’s a hearty endorsement and a financial lifeline after Softbank and Uncle Same injected a combined $11 billion into the company. Recall, the US government now owns 10% of Intel. Shares of AMD are falling 5% because they also make the the kind of chips that Intel will now be building on Nvidia’s behalf.
Expensive rebrand: Shares of Cracker Barrel are plunging -7% after warning sales growth will be less than expected as it continues to deal with the fallout from a brief logo change this summer. Cracker Barrel changed its logo in the summer and faced intense backlash from those who felt taking out the farmer from the logo erased American traditions. Since the August 19 logo change, foot traffic to its restaurants dropped about 8% according to their CFO. Their sales forecast for the year also fell short of expectations. They are cancelling plans to remodel some restaurants. The CEO is still in place, however with numbers like these and the way the current political winds are shifting, it remains unclear how long she can stay in the role. Truist analyst Jake Bartlett is sticking with his buy rating saying “sales drivers remain intact” despite logo “snafu.”
Follow the money: Jimmy Kimmel was taken off the air for his comments about Charlie Kirk’s death. Kimmel’s show appears on ABC which is owned by Disney. Many ABC affiliate channels that play the show are actually owned by a publicly traded company called Nexstar Media. Nexstar is in the process of trying to buy another affiliate TV station called Tegna for $6.2 billion. They require FCC approval to do so. The Chair of the FCC was heard on a podcast upset with comments by Kimmel and said “this is a very, very serious issue for Disney right now.” Disney also requires licenses from the FCC. This comes just two months after late night host Stephen Colbert announced this would be the final season of the show on CBS, which is owned by Paramount Global. At the time Paramount was seeking approval by the FCC to be taken over by Skydance. A deal that was later approved. In the words of Forrest Gump, “And that’s all I have to say about that.”
Just do it: Nike is being upgraded at RBC to outperform with a $90/share price target. RBC’s Piral Dadhania says he is seeing signs of improvement in their running footwear division and expects the World Cup to be a catalyst. RBC expects profit growth to be as much as 17% ahead of consensus expectations. Nike has been a tough slog (I’m a shareholder) but Dadhania sees the organizational changes starting to bear fruit. “We expect a steeper revenue recovery shape than street estimates, with new product contribution and World Cup sell-in partly offset by moderating inventory reduction, and return to positive growth by 3Q26E.”
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