Bullish Brian Belski is back—and yes, he’s still bullish. In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, the CEO & Chief Investment Officer of Humilis Investment Strategies—fresh off launching his own firm—explains why he still believes the U.S. is the best stock market in the world, with Canada a close second. Belski makes the case for an earnings-driven market where stock picking, discipline, and long-term thinking matter more than macro noise. He also explains why he’s underweight the MAG 7, why U.S. banks look unfairly punished, why risks are building in private equity and private credit, and why that could create a major opportunity in small- and mid-cap stocks.
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The good news is no other kids got sick and the eldest is back to school. The bad news, I wasn’t so lucky.
Here are five things to know today:
Stealth: If the S&P 500 finishes higher today it would be the seventh session in a row of gains – the longest win streak since October. The TSX snapped a six session win streak yesterday held back by weakness in energy, materials and tech stocks. Software on both sides of the border got crushed on anxieties stemming from the release of new AI models (more on that below). Today the market will focus on CPI which gave us the first indication of how the war in Iran affected consumer prices. Gas prices increased by the most on record since 1967 thanks to the war and accounted for three quarters of the increase in CPI. Headline CPI increased 3.3% in March compared to 2.4% in February. This is the fastest pace of year over year inflation growth in two years. Having said that, it was slightly below expectations. The focus is on core inflation which didn’t increase as much as anticipated and came in at 2.6%. Futures popped higher after the print.
In line: Canada added 14,100 jobs in March vs the 15,000 increase expected and 84,000 jobs lost in February. Surprisingly, the data was in line with expectations which is rare. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%. Full time employment fell by 1,100 jobs while part time employment increased by 15,200. Wage growth was higher than than expected at 5.1% vs 4.2% previously. “Canadian employment increased in March following two consecutive declines, but the rebound was no better than consensus expectations and failed to bring the unemployment rate lower,” wrote CIBC’s Andrew Grantham, “Overall, and through the monthly volatility, the Canadian labour market still appears quite weak, which should limit the ability of the current oil price shock to widely spread into broader inflationary pressures, enabling the Bank of Canada to hold interest rates at their current level throughout 2026.”
Soft: The S&P 500 software index ETF (IGV) fell to its usual support level of around $76/share for the third time in two months. Anthropic unveiled Mythos, an AI system that is capable of identifying and exploiting vulnerabilities and is said to be so powerful that Anthropic is only releasing it to a handful of companies so it doesn’t fall into the hands of hackers. Reports suggest that Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent convened an urgent meeting with top bank CEOs to ensure they were on top of the latest AI developments and potential cyber security threats. Citi’s Tyler Radke is warning that pressure on software stocks is likely to only intensify in the coming months. He now only rates about 50% of his software coverage a buy after downgrading six stocks: Similarweb (SMWB), CCC Intelligent Solutions (CCC), DocuSign (DOCU), NICE Ltd. (NICE), Veeva Systems (VEEV), and Autodesk (ADSK). “We believe most of these are good companies, and may be well positioned long-term, but don’t have exciting 12-month catalysts,” wrote Radke. The sector has already faced significant pressure down 27% so far this year, but Radke warns the worst is not over. “While software stocks have faced significant pressure…we would argue Q4 fundamentals were quite strong,” he said, “…Heading into Q1, we see a tougher set-up given typical seasonality issues, and more cautious checks and our CIO survey, which suggest softer IT budgets, greater software consolidation pressure, all against inflecting AI revenue at labs/privates (Anthropic, OpenAI etc.).” He still likes Shopify, Microsoft, MongoDB, Snowflake and Palantir noting they have “clearer growth trajectories.”
Static: Cogeco Communications could come under pressure after profit and sales missed expectations and the company warned that profit and sales will be lower than expected for the year. The is the second year in a row the company has cut its sales forecast. The cable TV and internet company said sales in the current quarter were hurt by its American telecommunications segment due to a lower subscriber base and competitive pricing environment. Cogeco says the pressure in the US business is worse than anticipated and is lowering its overall revenue forecast to a decline of 2-4% compared to its previous outlook of -2-0% growth. Cogeco’s operations in the US operate under Breezeline banner and span across 13 states primarily along the East Coast. Jerome Dubreuil said the sales and profit warning was “largely anticipated” by consensus and management is touting better subscriber trends, benefits from a price increase in February, and new initiatives to get growth going again. The stock had been under pressure ahead of earnings as a downgrade from TD Cowen at the end of March warned of challenges in the US business.
Kitchen sink: Watch Cascades at the open after it cut its profit forecast ahead of quarterly results next month. The paper and packaging company warned that bad weather in the US, fuel surcharges, and a malaise brought on by geopolitical events will all weigh on the bottom line in the upcoming quarter. To offset this, Cascades is planning a round of price increases in certain business segments. MTY Food Group is also a stock to watch after sales missed expectations. The food court restaurant operator saw the biggest drop in its US business, with same-store sales down 3.6%. This was worse than international markets (-1.3%) and Canada (-0.8%). The CEO called out “depressed consumer sentiment” but noted that things started to improve in March (so obviously not affected by the war).
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