Opendoor has skyrocketed more than 700% since Eric Jackson first tweeted about it this summer and he says the rally may just be getting started. In this episode of In the Money with Amber Kanwar, the Canadian hedge fund manager returns to explain how he went from an Opendoor skeptic in January to leading a retail “Open Army” that helped drive sweeping management changes, brought the founders back to the board, and turned the stock into his next Carvana-style bet. He also got conviction on his next big idea, Better Home & Finance, from an earlier episode of our show! Listen on Apple, Spotify or watch on YouTube.
Canadians love their bank stocks — and for good reason. They’ve delivered decades of strong returns and dividend growth. But what’s the easiest, low-cost way to own all six of the Big Banks without picking favourites? Enter Hamilton ETFs. Learn more about the Hamilton Canadian Bank Equal Weight Index ETF (HEB) — which comes with no management fee until 2026 — and the Hamilton Enhanced Canadian Bank ETF (HCAL), which uses modest 25% leverage to boost exposure and dividend yield.
The middle child who goes to the school the uniform that changes seemingly every day threw us for a loop. Recall, they go by an eight day calendar system except on Thursdays when its always gym clothes. Last week casual day fell on gym day. It was like playing a game of rock-paper-scissors in the parent group chat to figure out whether gym trumps casual day. Turns out it does. But then, a few days later another curve ball. Number 1 dress also fell on gym day. Surely number 1 dress trumps gym! That’s why it’s called number 1. It was only as a drove up with my daughter dressed in her best did I learn that gym trumps all.
Home stretch: Futures are under pressure on the last trading day of the month and the third quarter. The TSX closed less than 30 pts shy of 30,000 yesterday. It may not cross that today considering gold and silver are also pulling back this morning. We can forgive them for pausing, the TSX materials sector is up 76% so far this year, that would be a record annual gain if this holds into the fourth quarter. In light of the high likelihood of a US government shutdown tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed they wouldn’t release jobs data Friday while the government is closed. Tariffs are also a consideration for investors this morning with US President Donald Trump increasing them on lumber and furniture (more below).
Downsizing: Watch Imperial Oil at the open after the integrated oil company announced it would cut 20% of its workforce amidst a drop in crude oil. Imperial Oil, Exxon Mobil’s Canadian unit, said the cuts will result in approximately 900 job losses, mostly in Calgary. Analysts suggest the $150 million in annual savings as a result of the cuts will be directed to shareholders via share buybacks. “IMO rarely makes major out-of-reporting-cycle announcements, so this one surprised us,” wrote TD’s Meno Hulshof who downgraded the stock to sell on valuation but says this announcement is positive. Imperial already has very low WTI breakeven price at $35/barrel. Technology is also a big factor here with many analysts saying this will accelerate its use. “Reading between the lines, the press release suggests increased application of AI technology,” wrote Desjardin’s Chris MacCulloch.
Investor day: Watch shares of TD at the open after hosting an investor day yesterday afternoon. Desjardin’s Doug Young called it a “breath of fresh air.” TD laid out plans to stablize after its anti-money laundering issues, reduce costs, leverage AI and to become a top 10 global investment bank. “The message was clear: the bank will focus on deepening client relationships, simplifying the bank, and maintaining cost and capital allocation discipline,” wrote Young. TD shares have soared 50% so far this year, outperforming the bank index, and reached a record high. Recall, the company was one of the worst bank stocks last year as it was beset by regulatory investigations and ultimately a penalty for lax anti-money laundering controls. TD said the asset cap as a result of those penalties won’t hamper their ability to grow in the US.
Timberr: Watch lumber stocks after Trump announced plans to increase tariffs by 10%. A levy on wood products like kitchen cabinets and upholstered wood will also go up to 25%. Canada is the biggest foreign supplier of lumber to the US shipping an estimated $5.4 billion worth last year, making up 72% of total imports according to data from Bloomberg. However, one analyst believes we could see some relief in lumber stocks on the back of the announcement. “The 10% tariff applied to softwood lumber is below the 25% tariff we expected, wrote TD’s Sean Steuart, “and the determination appears to exclude any tariffs on structural panels – including oriented strand board (OSB).” He also said the language in the release left room for negotiation. Watch shares of Western Forest Products, Canfor, and West Fraser Timber.
Notable calls: Tourmaline was cut to hold at TD citing valuation and concerns about its ability maintain its pace on special dividends. Tourmaline is a fan favourite because of operational excellence, low cost structure, and its penchant for rewarding shareholders with special dividends. TD notes that the company has big capital plans coming up and this could curb the ability to pay those special dividends at the same pace as before especially considering the weak pricing environment for nat gas.. “Tourmalines’s updated 5-year plan includes significant near-term capex (including infrastructure) to drive growth through 2031,” wrote TD’s Aaron Bilkoski. He estimates the special dividends could be 40% below 2025 levels. Programming note: CEO Mike Rose will be on the podcast later in October. Freeport McMoRan was upgraded to buy at Bank of America on the back of a recent selloff. The stock got hit earlier this week after temporarily halting production of its copper/gold mine in Indonesia. The analyst is optimistic that they will get things back up and running again. Spotify is under pressure. Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to neutral on valuation, but this was before the company announced its CEO and founder will be transitioning to role of Executive Chairman. Two co-CEOs are going to replace him. Shares are down 4% in the pre-market after the announced change.
