Canada is on the cusp of what could be a generational investment opportunity. After years of underinvestment, billions of dollars are flowing toward infrastructure, defence, energy and data centres—and some of the biggest beneficiaries may still be overlooked by investors. Andrey Omelchak, President, CEO & CIO at LionGuard Capital, believes Canada’s economic transformation is just getting started. After outperforming both the TSX and Nasdaq without relying on big tech or mining stocks, he explains why he’s so bullish on Canada’s future, where he’s finding opportunities and which companies could deliver outsized returns.
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Past picks scorecard
One monster winner, one that roughly tracked the market and one that’s down a bit, from Andrey’s March 3 picks.
- Bird Construction (TSX: BDT): up 155%. He trimmed it but still owns it. Margins have expanded from about 8% toward 9.5% to 10%, and its data centre deal with Bell adds a new leg of growth. After a run like this the multiple is rich, so he thinks the stock could trade sideways for a while.
- Canaccord Genuity (TSX: CF): up 6%, vs. the TSX up 8%. He trimmed this one too. The sale of its UK wealth business is still pending, and he thinks the stock remains mispriced on a sum-of-the-parts basis.
- Calian Group (TSX: CGY): down 3%. Still a holding. The backlog keeps growing, more than 60% of it is tied to Canadian defence, and it just won a UK training contract. At about 20 times forward earnings, he calls it “highly mispriced.”
Andrey Omelchak’s Pro Picks
1. Magellan Aerospace (TSX: MAL)
- Size: about a $1.7 billion market cap, with Murray Edwards owning roughly 75%
- Margins: adjusted EBITDA margin of 14%, up from 8.5% a year ago, and he sees it heading to 16% to 17%
- Defence exposure: its Winnipeg plant makes submarine components and missile parts, and offsets from Canada’s German submarine contract could flow its way
- Thesis: a sleepy aerospace supplier turning into a defence play. Requests for proposals are at a record, the company has spare capacity to take on more work, and he thinks the stock looks cheap on earnings two years out.
2. Enerflex (TSX: EFX)
- The pivot: natural gas-fired, behind-the-meter power for data centres
- Backlog: a 450-megawatt contract announced Oct. 1, followed by more than a gigawatt more, for 1.75 gigawatts committed against a 2-gigawatt target he expects to be raised to around 3 gigawatts
- Recurring revenue: about two-thirds of the business
- Thesis: data centres need power now, and Enerflex has already secured the equipment to deliver it, which is the real bottleneck. The stock jumped about 15% in a day on the news, and it’s one of his biggest positions.
3. Badger Infrastructure (TSX: BDGI)
- Business: North America’s largest hydrovac excavation company
- Performance: up 24% year to date
- Growth: 23% organic growth, with revenue per truck up 14%
- Thesis: every pipeline, power line and data centre starts with digging, and Badger is the one doing it safely. With roughly $3 trillion to $4 trillion of infrastructure projects coming, plus LNG Canada Phase 2 and a possible Alaska LNG project, he thinks street estimates are too low.
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DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated and should be checked against actual delivery. The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.
