Legendary commodity investor Rick Rule sees weakness coming for natural resources and thinks investors should be ready to take advantage. In this special season premiere episode, he’s here to tell you what he’s buying. Rick Rule, President and CEO of Rule Investment Media, joins In the Money with Amber Kanwar to kick off a new season with his outlook for gold, oil and natural resource stocks. While higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar could weigh on commodities through the rest of 2026, Rule remains firmly bullish over the longer term—and says a pullback could put the assets he wants to own “on sale.
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FROM AMBER’S DESK
Our youngest turns 5 today. It feels like we’ve run a marathon that suddenly ended. Five years ago we had three kids under three, living day-to-day just trying to make it to 7pm bedtime. Now we sleep later than the kids, they get themselves up in the morning, can get their own snacks, can (mostly) handle their own bathroom activities. We’re in the golden years now. The first thing my eldest said this morning: “Had Dad agreed to a fourth baby?” It is hard not to give into the persistent demands of a first born, but we’ve got the benefit of experience – and a completely ignored pet fish – to know not to give into this one.
Here are five things to know today
1.
Markets under pressure on geopolitical tensions, tech outperforms
Oil prices are climbing as conflict escalates in the Middle East pressuring stocks this morning as Canada imposes retaliatory tariffs on the US. Tech stocks, particularly AI related names, are a bright spot along with commodities. Copper hit a record high. “Energy prices can’t keep rising without impacting the market, and at some point even a tame inflation report later this week may not mean much if crude oil prices remain in the mid-90s, approaching triple digits,” wrote Bespoke Investment Group in a note to clients.
At the same time, Canada followed through with 50% tariffs on $28 billion worth of goods coming from the US. Trump was posting furiously about Canada aiming at our currency and Bombardier (more on that below). “As far as the Canadian trade balance with the US is concerned, the Canadian surplus is modest at C$5.9 billion in July and mostly energy. The US runs a trade deficit with Canada largely because it is a big consumer of energy; take energy out and Canada runs a trade deficit with the US using US data itself,” notes Scotia’s Derek Holt, “The Trump administration’s focus upon the trade and current account deficits reflects an ongoing lack of understanding of the issues and/or is designed to deflect blame away from domestic policies that cause them and/or is aimed at raising taxes on Americans through tariffs without telling them they’re paying higher taxes.”
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2.
US President Donald Trump threatens to ban Bombardier
Trump took to social media yesterday and threatened to ban Bombardier from the US on the eve of retaliatory tariffs by Canada which came into effect today. “NO MORE SELLING BOMBARDIER IN THE UNITED STATES! Their products aren’t good enough!,” Trump said in the post, “If they want our Market, they must build here…” The punch line is that while Bombardier does get more than 50% of its revenue from the United States – it gets more than 50% of its parts from American companies like GE and Honeywell. Which happens to be more than competitors like Gulfstream. Bombardier said as much in their press release. But as they say – never let facts get in the way of a good story.
So what does this mean for the stock? The last time Bombardier was threatened by Trump the stock fell 10% but then recovered as cooler heads prevailed. This time might be different – and a little more challenging according to Cameron Doerksen at National Bank. ” Given the recent tariff escalation between the two countries and failed trade talks, we suspect that this latest threat to Bombardier will not be de-escalated as quickly as in January,” he said.
Trump also once again mentioned the Canadian banks. He knows what he is doing – hitting the two most sensitive nerves in Canadian business: banks and Bombardier.
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3.
Tamarack Valley buys Headwater in all-stock deal
The two Clearwater oil plays coming together was well telegraphed on the podcast. Cole Smead of Smead Capital was on the podcast in January calling for these two companies to be “dancing and mating” while David Szybunka of Canoe Financial called it the best oil play he has seen in his career.
Here are the nuts and bolts of the deal: Tamarack Valley will buy Headwater in a $10 billion deal. Tamarack will own 66.5% of the new company which will be lead by their management. Tamarack plans to increase the quarterly dividend by 20% and the combined company will produce more than 80,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. I own Tamarack. Both shares have done very well over the past year – more than doubling – and outperforming the broader energy sector. “Very happy and proud of Tamarack Valley and Headwater management for this (deal),” said Smead when I reached out for comment.
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4.
US government takes minority stake in three quantum companies
Shares of D-Wave, Rigetti Computing, and Quantinuum are higher in the pre-market after the US government took a combined $300 billion minority stake as part of the CHIPS Act. Each company will receive $100 million investment structured as a grant. D-Wave is notable because it is a Canadian based company.
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5.
Notable calls: Cenovus, Airbnb, Peloton
Cenovus is upgraded to overweight at JPMorgan as part of a broader note preferring oil to natural gas. The note calls out Cenovus for attractive relative valuation and asset footprint.
Airbnb is upgraded to outperform at Raymond James on the premise that AI will boost the company’s bookings and pricing. Shares jumped back in August after the company increased its outlook for revenue growth.
Peloton has been downgraded to underweight at Morgan Stanley. The analyst expects continued pressure on Peloton’s subscription base which isn’t priced in. Right now the street is modeling a “stark inflection” in subscriber growth which they just don’t see happening.
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