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Peter Boockvar’s Unconventional Picks

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What happens when the war ends — and what is the market getting wrong right now? Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, joins In the Money with Amber Kanwar to break down what he sees as some of the most mispriced trades in global markets. From oil to gold to global equities, Boockvar argues that investors are too focused on short-term geopolitical moves — and missing the bigger structural shifts already underway.

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1. Fertilizer Sector (Mosaic, Nutrien, CF Industries)
The fertilizer space is positioned for the next leg of the commodity bull market, driven by supply disruptions and eventual crop price recovery.

  • Supply shocks from the Middle East conflict have spiked key inputs like sulfur and ammonia, creating margin pressure now but strong rebound potential for phosphate producers like Mosaic once prices normalize.
  • Crop prices (corn, wheat, soybeans) remain relatively depressed despite recent events, with planting season impacts on yields not fully visible until fall — setting up a lagged but powerful demand boost for fertilizers.
  • The sector entered this period at depressed valuations, offering leveraged exposure to rising commodity prices as potash and nitrogen names have already shown strength and phosphate names prepare to catch up.

2. Kraft Heinz (KHC)

Kraft Heinz stands out as a deeply undervalued contrarian play in consumer staples, trading near multi-decade lows with a compelling turnaround setup.

  • The stock offers a high dividend yield near 7%, backed by iconic brands like Philadelphia Cream Cheese, Heinz Ketchup, and Kraft Mac & Cheese that still hold strong consumer loyalty.
  • New CEO Steve Cahillane is refocusing on core power brands, increasing marketing investment, and adapting to protein and health trends after years of underinvestment under the prior ownership model.
  • Sentiment is at rock bottom — these stocks don’t need everything to go perfectly; they simply need to become “less bad” as management executes, creating significant upside from current hated levels.

3. Conagra Brands (CAG)

Conagra represents another beaten-down opportunity in consumer staples, with exposure to faster-growing protein and frozen food categories.

  • As the largest frozen food seller in the U.S., Conagra benefits from a strong meats business including beef jerky and Slim Jim, aligning well with shifting consumer preferences toward higher protein intake.
  • Management is actively resetting product lines toward better ingredients, less processed foods, and protein-enriched options to compete more effectively against private label and health-focused trends.
  • Trading at multi-year lows with extremely negative sentiment, the stock offers attractive risk/reward — modest stabilization or improvement in execution could drive meaningful recovery.

4. Emerging Markets Local Currency Bonds (via EMLC ETF)

Emerging market local currency bonds provide an attractive way to add non-dollar exposure and capture high real yields in fiscally disciplined markets.

  • Many emerging economies feature stronger balance sheets and lower debt/deficit burdens than developed markets, supported by central banks with extensive experience fighting inflation.
  • The space offers generous income potential (coupons often in the 6–6.5% range) plus diversification benefits for portfolios heavy in U.S. dollar assets.
  • While local currency exposure introduces FX volatility, it can deliver solid total returns when paired with high carry, especially as a complement to domestic holdings during periods of dollar weakness.

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DISCLAIMERS: This text AI generated and should be checked against actual delivery. The content provided in this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. The views expressed by the host and guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of any organization or company. The host and guests may maintain positions in any securities discussed on the podcast. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor or professional before making any investment decisions.

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